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To recognize the first
anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, this series was originally published
at the blog from August 23-29, 2006. This series recalls the storm
from Tropical Depression to the Louisiana landfalls. Personal
recollections, quotes and our exclusive hurricane model maps are
included. |
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KATRINA:
Day By Day. Day 1. August 23 Tropical Depression Twelve, which became Katrina, developed on August 23, 2005. Here's the first model map I did showing various model runs that included an NHC track:  There's a couple interesting items from this initial batch of models with an NHC forecast. The early path from TPC/NHC was very close to where Katrina actually tracked. NHC (rightfully) drew heavy fire for later going with the GFDL models that sharply recurved the storm into the Panhandle. This is what many people remember and use against the agency (Sen. Santorum and AccuWeather among the most vocal cheap shot artists). But, one year ago today, this was what was presented to those of us who track and independently forecast tropical cyclones. ANYONE (read: Mayor Nagin, LA government, FEMA, American Red Cross, et al) who later went on to say they were surprised when Katrina headed to NOLA were either perfidious or clueless. A Red Cross employee on Fox TV muttered "we really didn't think it would be this bad" as Katrina bore down on the Gulf Coast. After the disaster, Homeland Security chief Michael Chertoff called the disaster "breathtaking in its surprise." And he did so with a straight face. While it is true that early on no computer model forecast the intensity and fetch Hurricane Katrina would grow to, it is also true there were ominous signs nearly one week before landfall #2 in Louisiana. But, who was watching? Over the next week I'll have additional "Katrina Comments" as we track Katrina Day By Day One Year Later. This is an anniversary no one wants to remember, but no one can forget. |
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KATRINA:
Day By Day. Day 2. August 24 Continuing my series on the evolution of Katrina. People awoke on Wednesday, August 24, 2005 and for the first time heard the name Katrina; the wobbly depression was in the Central Bahamas and about to become a tropical storm. Coincidentally, there was an Invest 97L also on August 24, 2005. This map below shows the 11AM EDT TPC/NHC forecast track for the newly named storm, along with the early model runs.  It was here that the NHC changed the extended track of Tropical Storm Katrina...bringing it into Florida as a Cat-1 before crossing the Peninsula and recurving toward the Panhandle area. I've been told by a most reliable contact that this was in part due to the GFS model that excessively recurved Katrina into South Carolina. The GFS skewed the consensus CONU into Big Bend, while the GFDL group generally brought the storm to a second landfall around Pensacola. Perhaps you noticed the GFDN: the yellow line depicting the Navy version of the GFDL? Amazing how it nailed the path and remained the only model I tracked that generally stuck with a LA landfall. I was in communication with a USN Met who was resolute in believing the GFDN had the right idea: a trof coming down from the Great Lakes would weaken the High Pressure Ridge, permitting Katrina to track much further west than the NHC "black line". Here's a snip from the WeatherCenter Update I wrote on August 24, 2005: "At this time one must look to the Central and Northern Plains of the United States for answers, as a trof of Low Pressure approaches the cyclone, spinning up again over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. How this Continental feature interacts with Katrina determines where she goes. A couple of options are developing: the trof catches Katrina...pulling her into the Panhandle and up inland through Georgia to Southeast Virginia or the Delmarva Peninsula. Second option is Katrina stays south of the trof and comes inland along the Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama coast. My thinking right now is the latter. I'm not sold on the Panhandle because Gulf storms tendency to track slightly west of forecast is not lost on me." Watches and warnings were posted as the evacuations and boarding up began; Katrina was forecast to slow down and become a hurricane on approach to the South Florida coast. The media frenzy was underway in Miami, where hurricane force winds were feared. Katrina's real wrath was flooding rains that would produce moderate urban flooding. Tomorrow, Katrina's eye will literally cross the National Hurricane Center...little did they know in just four days they would figuratively be back in the eye of the very same storm. |
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KATRINA:
Day By Day. Day 3.
August 25 Our exclusive look back at Katrina one year ago today continues. Katrina increased strength to become a Category-1 hurricane at landfall. Over one million Floridians were without power as tropical force winds buffeted the central and southern portion of the peninsula. Several people died, notably from falling trees uprooted in saturating rains and strong winds. The NHC's Dr. Lixion Avila wrote the 11PM Discussion which included an interesting comment: "THE MIAMI NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER OFFICE MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 984.5 MB DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE EYE AND THE WINDS QUICKLY INCREASED IN THE SOUTHEAST EYEWALL WITH A PEAK GUST OF 76 KNOTS." Katrina crossed over the NHC's office. A videographer nearby in Coral Gables endured tropical force winds with hurricane gusts that were captured in this video. The evening's model map from August 25, 2005 had shifted slightly but painted the same picture...a second landfall along the Panhandle and then an inland runner up through Georgia, the Carolinas and Virginia.  Incidentally, the five day NHC forecast, shown as the solid black line, put the storm a little south of the Mid-Atlantic WX.com office. The path still seemed too far east, but it worried me enough to put this note in my Day-Timer for tomorrow: "get gas, check generator." Why should anyone west of Pensacola worry about Katrina? After all, most of the models tracked the storm up into Virginia and that is a long way from The Ninth Ward of New Orleans. A trof of Low Pressure was going to swoop down from across the Great Lakes area and weaken the Ridge...in essence, shifting the wind flow and opening the door for Katrina to head north in response to the weakness. And, the GFS and GFDL were screaming TROF, so virtually every computer model intensified the storm over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and drilled it inland toward the Mid-Atlantic. But, my doubts continued because of lingering concerns the models all season had been too far east. The UKMET and the ECMWF models now hinted steering winds would nudge Katrina more toward the west. I wrote the evening's WeatherCenter Update ready to honk "Mobile Bay or NOLA". I then read the following out of the NWS office in Birmingham: "PERSONALLY...I DON'T THINK THE NORTHERN GULF IS UNDER THE GUN AT THE MOMENT WITH A 595 RIDGE OVER THE AREA. RIDGE DOES SHIFT WESTWARD...BUT NOT FAR ENOUGH TO THREATEN MUCH OF ALABAMA. ONE OF 2 SOLUTIONS LOOKS MORE LIKELY...THE STORM STAYING ON A WESTWARD TRACK AND IMPACTING SOUTH TEXAS...OR A QUICK RE-CURVE ACROSS CENTRAL FL." I wondered what would push the trof all the way into the Gulf...especially in late August? My Update was cautiously rewritten to remove New Orleans as my western "edge of probability". Then while preparing to retire for the night, a message arrived in my Inbox: a friend I chat with near New Orleans was going to the Saints-Ravens pre-season game the following night and wanted to know about Katrina. Being exhausted, my reply was brief: "she's in Florida, you're in NOLA. Enjoy the game and I'll let you know more this weekend". My follow-up email to her on Saturday received no reply...she had already evacuated. Tomorrow will tell the tale: is Katrina coming to my back yard in the Shenandoah Valley of Virginia, or is she going to bomb out and clobber Mobile. Or, is The Big One looming over the horizon for the Big Easy? |
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KATRINA:
Day By Day. Day 4. August 26 Katrina rolled off the Florida coast and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico on the morning of August 26, 2005; hours earlier than the NHC Forecast/Advisory indicated. It appears the storm was a borderline Cat-1 hurricane when it reemerged over water; winds were around 75MPH. Later in the morning, winds were 100MPH and the pressure dropped 15 or 16 millibars. Jim Cantore was being blown sideways on The Weather Channel while over 10,000 National Guard troops made way to the Gulf Coast. As promised, Katrina was "bombing out", but where was she going? Would the NHC 11AM Discussion shed light on the dilemma? "THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF KATRINA IS FORECAST BY THE ALL GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES." The answer was no; in fact, it added to the confusion: "THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS HAVE MADE A LARGE JUMP TO THE WEST OVER LOUISIANA...WHEREAS THE MAJORITY OF THE NHC MODELS TAKE KATRINA INLAND OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS IN THE RIGHT PORTION OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE." You can see the conundrum faced by the NHC on the morning's model map of August 26, 2005:  Once again, a second Florida landfall was forecast. But, the suspicion I fretted over was continuing...several computer models, led by the ECMWF, NOGAPS and the GFS, were shifting west with every run. Recon and soundings indicated two key points: Katrina was still moving to the West Southwest and High Pressure Ridging was not caving in. I emailed an EOC employee in a Mid-Atlantic State to comment I doubted Katrina was coming "our way". I argued every minute the intensifying hurricane tracks to the WSW, the further west it must make landfall. He wrote back telling me authorities from Georgia to Virginia were going to heightened alert as they prepared for Katrina's winds and flooding rains. Everything changed the afternoon of August 26, 2005. Here's the afternoon model map and NHC forecast track:  High Pressure off to the north and northwest was not weakening...it remained very strong. The trof up over the US would come down toward Katrina, but because the Ridge was not weakening, Katrina could not sharply turn north toward the Florida Panhandle (High Pressure rotates clock-wise so Katrina kept a slow WSW track around the southeast side of the Ridge). She was supposed to be turning to the north, but stubborn Katrina had a mind of her own and kept spinning to the WSW. The 5PM National Hurricane Center Forecast/Advisory was an astounding 150 nautical miles to the west of the previous track at 11AM. My friend and thousands more went to the Superdome thinking Katrina would be turning away from Louisiana. At the end of the game, urgent hurricane messages were displayed at the Superdome, urging people to prepare for the possibility of a major hurricane near Louisiana and Mississippi. Everything changed. |
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KATRINA:
Day By Day. Day 5. August 27 My series on Katrina continues with a look back at August 27, 2005. The Gulf Coast and New Orleans are now in near panic mode. Evacuations are underway, Interstates clogged by sundown (Gov. Kathleen Blanco and Mayor Nagin later would testify the evacuations went better than expected). Yesterday, FEMA Director Michael Brown sent an email to his Press Secretary asking: "tie or not for tonight? Button down blue shirt?" Today however he, like many others, finally grasped the situation, writing to the Florida DEM Director: "This one has me really worried." NHC Director Max Mayfield lamented: "I just don't see any reason why this will not become a very, very powerful hurricane before it's all over." Here is the model map and NHC track from the evening of August 27, 2005:  With the exception of the generally irrelevant A98 model, it was obvious Katrina would landfall at or possibly slightly east of New Orleans as a major hurricane. Some people were pleased to hear a Hurricane Hunter report indicating Katrina's Minimum Central Pressure was up to 950mb. I recall posting on a weather board this isn't good news as Katrina was completing an eyewall replacement cycle and every model indicated the storm would really bomb out tomorrow. Katrina looked ragged on radar but that didn't stop the NHC from hinting a Cat-5 hurricane remains a possibility (uttering 'category-5' in a forecast is extremely rare). The European and the GFS depicted a worse scenario, if that was possible: both brought the eye into LA just west of NOLA. Here's a close-up of the afternoon models:  For the first time, I was scared while not being near the point of landfall. But others in the Big Easy apparently were not, as evidenced by routine traffic and hurricane parties broadcast live on cable network reports from the city. Every wobble on radar is analyzed and while I found it interesting, my attention was shared between recon and satellite. Katrina was blowing up. The cloud shield continued to expand, as did the wind field of hurricane force winds. This means storm surge to the east of where ever she made landfall would be huge. I spent the late night hours on IM and in a weather chat room wondering if the hurricane hardy residents of coastal Alabama and Mississippi had any idea what was coming their way. The President was on vacation and Michael Chertoff was in Atlanta to attend a Bird Flu conference, but today was the day Louisiana was officially declared a Federal disaster area. FEMA and the White House wanted us to know they were prepared. And, the unwitting understatement of the day came from the Red Cross' Renita Hosler who, attempting to calm the worried public, assured them the Red Cross is keeping an eye on Katrina. At 11PM EDT, the intensifying Cat-3 hurricane was about 36 hours away from landfall.. |
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KATRINA:
Day By Day. Day 6. August 28 I fell asleep at the computer around 3AM on August 28, 2005. Shortly before 6AM EDT, I awoke and checked Recon. Here is what I and many others awoke to: URNT12 KNHC 280951 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE A. 28/09:21:10Z B. 25 deg 32 min N 087 deg 20 min W C. 700 mb 2381 m D. NA kt E. NA deg 000 nm F. 054 deg 144 kt G. 326 deg 016 nm H. EXTRAP 915 mb I. 8 C/ 3052 m J. 20 C/ 3055 m K. 13 C/ NA L. CLOSED WALL M. E04/30/25 N. 12345/ 7 O. 1 / 1 nm P. AF302 1712A KATRINA OB 04 MAX FL WIND 144 KT NW QUAD 09:16:00 Z MAX FL TEMP 21 C, 331 / 11NM SLP EXTRAPOLATED FROM 700MB. 915 millibars, 144 knot winds (~165 MPH) in the NE Quad. Katrina was now a massive Cat-5 hurricane. At 8AM it got even worse as the pressure dropped again to 908 millibars with sustained winds of 160 MPH. The NHC issued the following: "Coastal storm surge flooding of 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels...locally as high as 25 feet along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall". Along the coast, most people raced to clock to secure property from the advertised storm surge. Others did nothing and some were never again seen alive. The morning's model map and NHC track are below:  There were jogs during the day which is expected from an intense hurricane, especially after an eyewall replacement cycle. Katrina kept grinding closer to the coast. People who errantly waited to evacuate discovered "contra-flow", the reversing of lanes to double the traffic flow in one direction, was ending in the afternoon because there simply was no place to put the vehicles and people. Thousands are now trapped on Interstates: no gas, no emergency gas fill-ups, overheated vehicles and virtually no where to turn. The I-10 East was closed and the West was creeping. A fellow "Storm 2K'er" sent a Google satellite view of Katrina on August 25th. Click here. Meanwhile, at the Storm2K board, someone posted the now infamous Bulletin from NWS in New Orleans: URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED... .HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE. HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK. POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS. THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED. AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE! We were awestruck at the
frightening tone of the message. And to those who had lived with
Katrina for days, we believed every word that was written. |
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KATRINA:
Day By Day. Day 7. August 29 At approximately 6:10AM CDT on August 29, 2005, Category 4 Hurricane Katrina finally makes landfall by Buras, LA (note: Post Event Analysis by the National Hurricane Center later determined landfall wind speed to be 110 knots, or 127MPH. Katrina is classified as a Category 3 hurricane at this landfall). It takes then FEMA Director Michael Brown five hours to request 1,000 Homeland Security advisors and offers them two days to arrive. He tells President Bush: “This is, to put it mildly, the big one, I think.”. It is not. At 8:14AM CDT, the first NWS Flash Flood Warning for a breached levee in NOLA is issued. At 11AM the hurricane makes another landfall on the Louisiana/Mississippi border as a Cat-3 at the same time I-10 is underwater at the Industrial Canal. NOLA's Homeland Security chief quips: "Everybody who had a way or wanted to get out of the way of this storm was able to. For some that didn't, it was their last night on this earth." The Red Cross, who 48 hours earlier noted it was "keeping an eye" on the hurricane, announces launching the largest mobilization of resources in its history for a single natural disaster. The Pascagoula Emergency Operations Center is flooded for the first time and is evacuated. An Amateur Radio operator near Gulfport is in his home as the roof blows away and then is flooded. He stays on-the-air by taking batteries from smashed vehicles piling up near his now destroyed home. A familiar poster at the Storm2K board watches his home and neighborhood in Biloxi go underwater and captures the events in stunning photos. Despite being 19.5 feet above sea level, vehicles are submerged. Click HERE. The Federal Government declared a major disaster for Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. By contrast, the government declared Florida a disaster area in advance of Ernesto last Sunday; three days before expected landfall. Here's is the Premium Service Weather verification chart showing all TPC/NHC Forecast/Advisory tracks for Hurricane Katrina.  Katrina was a Tale of Two Hurricanes. NHC did not forecast Katrina would track southwest across Florida. Some Gulf Coast NWS meteorologists were surprised it did not hit the Panhandle, or go west to Texas. But the fact remains the Hurricane Center did superb work and well served the public with information regarding what was coming to Louisiana and Mississippi. Major hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico rarely verify but the National Hurricane Center provided accurate information nearly 60 hours before landfall. What each person did with the information was a personal choice. For too many, it was their last day on this earth. This concludes our series: KATRINA: Day By Day. Thank you permitting me the opportunity to share this information and some personal reflections with you. |
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