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Scott's November, 2007 Blog
 (blog descends chronologically)
 
INVEST 95L ?!?...And...2008 Begins With a Brief Brutal Blast!
Snow and Flurries in Florida??? I think so!
Monday, December 31

INVEST 95L: A fairly impressive (very) late season Low Pressure center has spun up WSW of the Azores and has been named Invest 95L. Not much to report with this anomaly as it will not develop but should become a potent gale center over the open eaters of the Eastern Atlantic Ocean. I'll admit I was hoping for for "Pablo" but the disturbance is not totally tropical and will dissipate by tomorrow morning.

COLD: Hmmm...wonder how the Global Warming wacko-s will explain away  the impressive discharge of Arctic air now poised to invade much of the eastern and central US? Low Pressure north of the Great Lakes will combine with a plunging Northern Jet Stream to put most of the eastern half of the US into the Ice Box! The cold will drain south and east beginning on New Year's Day...truly gripping the nation by Wednesday night with temperatures easily 15-20 degrees below normal. Let's add in brisk NW winds to produce BELOW ZERO wind chills on Wednesday night west of the Blue Ridge in Virginia up over the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest and the Northeast. The Lake Effect snow machine should be cranking by New Year's Day with accumulating snowfall just south and to the east of the Lakes...while moderate snowfall will pile up on the western slopes of the Appalachians. There could also be some wind whipped snow New Year's night and Wednesday across the VA I-81 corridor (especially south of Roanoke). Mountainous NW North Carolina could see several inches of snow by Wednesday afternoon.

The cold blast impacts the Southeastern US later Wednesday and Thursday with a very real opportunity of a killing freeze and SNOW flurries over northern and central Florida (figures: Virginia Tech arrive for the Orange Bowl and it snows in Daytona!).

The current pattern is in a hyper-drive mode and the cold will be a quick memory by next weekend. High Pressure should build out of the Southwest, migrating east and bring with it a milder shift in winds out of the Southwest. Looks like Friday will be the transition day...especially over the Southeast and Tennessee Valley, where temps may bounce up by 20 degrees! The "polar jet" rapidly retreats north and by Saturday much of the Eastern US may be 10-15 degrees ABOVE normal! Even the Northeast warms up by next Sunday. But between New Year's and then we'll endure the coldest air mass of the early winter season.

Once the High takes over the Eastern and Central US, there appear to be no storm threats into early next week when another Cold Front approaches the Mid-Atlantic. Thinking now is warmer air will keep precipitation wet and not white, but that will be tuned up next weekend here at the blog. Bundle up!


SCOTT'S 2007 VIDEO AWARDS :) Well, it's New Year's Eve and everyone is giving away end of the year awards. My selection of the best weather related video of 2007 is the hurricane hunter flight into Cat-5 Felix; prominently linked on the left side of this page. I've chosen this video over numerous tornado chase vids because the public rarely sees how it looks to fly through a Cat-5 eyewall, especially in total darkness. Odd as it may seem, the night mission gives you a better sense of turbulence. I hope you enjoy this video and admire the crew as much as I do.

After much consideration, I submit to you my two favorite non-weather related videos of 2007!

Runner-Up: Stupid Burglar. Watch a knucklehead run into a glass door!



Best video of 2007: Cheating dog wins race...then races to Winner's Stand! Unbelievable!



Have a Happy and Safe New Year!
 
 
"Hello Americans. Stand By For...WIND!"
Sunday, December 16

Surface obs this morning show the primary Low over western PA and coastal Low off Delmarva at 996mb. This developing Nor'easter bombs out today and brings heavy snow into Upstate NY and New England (west of the I-95 corridor). A Cold Front crosses the Mid-Atlantic today and temps will quickly fall, while winds pick up to over 30MPH with 50-60 MPH gusts over higher elevations. If interested, you can watch wind and weather conditions in real-time from our wx station in Lexington, VA with a nifty desktop weather widget! The widget is located at ton the top of this page and you can pop that onto your desktop by clicking here!

Strong winds may produce near blizzard conditions for interior New England tonight. As this transfer occurs, wrap-around "backlash" precip will change to snow  from the Alleghenies up into the Northeast. No changes from yesterday's snowfall "guesstimates" for the Northeast. Elsewhere, no additional accumulation anticipated. Even in areas receiving no frozen precipitation today there remains a risk of black ice and slick spots tonight and care should be exercised while driving tonight and early Monday.

FWIW: 1.25 inches of rain from this storm at our wx station here in VA. The rainfall is needed and welcomed and while pleased with that, I'm not happy with my forecast on this storm. This has been a very challenging event!


Looking ahead: the active storm pattern will continue next week, bringing with it a couple of storms and roller coaster temps for the Eastern US. Monday and Tuesday will be chilly and dry as High Pressure slide by; winds will diminish by Monday afternoon.

A storm will develop over the Southern Plains and eject into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. This system may trigger some snow showers along the typically favored western slopes of the Alleghany Mountains late Wednesday.

Second storm will also originate in the same area but tracks into the Tennessee Valley after dumping snow on the lower Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. Warmer temps should keep precipitation over the balance of the Mid-Atlantic as plain rain on Thursday and Thursday night. We'll keep an eye on the track of this second disturbance for any additional impact to next weekend's weather.

The GFS model is honking about another storm following a similar track next weekend; that would put another storm into the Eastern US around Christmas Day. Something to keep an eye on!
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Winter Storm Chugging East With Messy Mix For Mid-Atlantic.
Saturday, December 15

Featured event is Low Pressure over Lower Mississippi Valley on track to enter the Tennessee Valley this evening, then heading toward the Mid-Atlantic. energy transfer will develop a new coastal Low off Virginia...producing a strong Nor'easter tomorrow.

High Pressure over the Northeast will enable a tight pressure gradient and very strong winds will develop on Sunday and linger into Monday. This Ridge is producing a CAD (cold air damming) event along and north of the Potomac River while south of here, West and SW winds are pushing warmer air up into the central-lower Mid-Atlantic. This temperature differential is seen on our Mid-Atlantic Mesomap (click to enlarge):



Precipitation type remains the biggest question mark and we're in "nowcasting" mode with some better agreement...but this is a complex event with a wide margin for error.

This is not a snow storm for Virginia...with the exception of the I-81 Corridor north of Shenandoah 2-3 inches of snow could mix with freezing rain. Additionally, locations along and north of I-66 could see slight accumulation of wet snow but this area should mostly feature freezing rain and rain. Same idea for Metro DC-Baltimore and Philly: 2+ inches of accumulation not anticipated. Down the I-81 corridor south of Harrisonburg, VA there will be some freezing rain mixed with plain rain..."black ice" probable on secondary roads and higher elevations with some ice accumulation.

WV: widespread 2-6 inch snow totals.

Delmarva: Rain with a slight chance of some sleet.

PA: widespread snow (except Philly/extreme SE Counties). From Southeast to Northwest, totals escalate from 1-3 inches upwards of one foot near Erie.

NJ: Mostly rain except mixed precip west of Bergen and Hudson Counties.

Northeast: Hammer Time 30 miles inland from the I-95 corridor.

Winds will be a problem on Sunday with the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast seeing widespread gusts exceed 50MPH. Areas with ice could see numerous downed limbs and trees causing power outages.

Another update this evening as the storm gets underway.

UPDATE: 11:25PM. Low Pressure now moving over TN Valley toward Mid-Atlantic. Deepest pressure falls now occurring NOR/VAB and just off the VA coast indicate transfer to secondary coastal Low getting underway. This secondary Low will crank up the coast tomorrow and become a genuine Nor'easter.

Another signal the coastal Low is pulling together is the rapidly rising temps along the coast. Currently, Norfolk is in the mid 50's and it's absolutely balmy on the Outer Banks...Smith Air Field at Beaufort, NC is 69° with a downright muggy dew point of 66°! At Ocracoke Island the unofficial temperature is now 70°. WOW!

Temps have been at or near freezing all day for much of the region with coolest cold air pocket being over the New River Valley of VA, where thousands are now without power. Liquid rainfall totals will approach an inch for much of the area and locations with sustained freezing rain will see .25-.50 inches of ice tonight. We can't say there will be zero snow or sleet in Virginia overnight as there have been a few localized areas seeing crystal precipitation...however the temperature trend is upward, except in areas previously mentioned.

The moderate to heavy rain has pulled warm air aloft down to the surface and temperatures overnight should slowly ebb upwards...minimizing icing problems on Sunday. This is fortunate timing as winds will become very strong by Sunday afternoon. See our Severe WeatherCenter for real-time Advisories, Watches and Warnings. As mentioned previously here at the blog, winds exceeding 50MPH will prevail, especially over higher terrain although everyone in the region should see wind gusts to 35-40MPH.


Another interesting feature tonight is Olga...click here and see her coming into Florida. Rain and impressive December thunderstorms coming in overnight from Big Bend to south of Tampa.

Next discussion Sunday morning around 11AM. Have a good night.
 
 
Mid-Atlantic Mix and Nasty Nor'easter!
Friday, December 14

Grissom on CSI often advises: "assume nothing". For this storm I shall assume everything!

Extremely complex storm system now getting underway with many (most?) answers still unknown. Expansive nature of the event requires this blog to focus on Mid-Atlantic States with a general overview of the Eastern US.

Overall, I-95 corridor from Richmond to Boston and the South Shore probably is the dividing line between wet and frozen precip. The further west of 95, the likelihood of accumulating heavy, wet snow will increase...with Western PA and the Appalachians seeing the potential for significant snowfall.

Current Surface Map (click to enlarge):



Friday morning finds the storm organizing over the Rockies and heads towards the Southeastern US on Saturday. A secondary Low will pop off the VA/NC coast and quickly intensifies on Sunday...producing a wild Nor'easter as it barrels up the cost off New England.

The "primary" Low will bring welcome rain to the SEUS but an advancing Cold Front will bring freezing/near freezing surface with warmer air aloft over the Mid-Atlantic...setting the stage for an initial bout of mixed wintry precipitation on Saturday. As such, VA into NJ should see plain rain and possible a touch of freezing rain along/east of I-95 and a variable mix of rain/freezing rain and perhaps some ice pellets to the west of I-95. Along and west of the Blue Ridge there could be more freezing rain with some accretion, particularly on bridges and along the higher elevations. VERY difficult to say at this time how I-81 and VA I-64 will be: warm ground may mitigate icing or temps stay sub-freezing and "black ice" becomes a wide scale problem. With this event assume anything is possible. Check your local forecast by typing your Zip code in the box at the top of this (and every) page here at Mid-Atlantic WX.com.

The developing coastal Low will quickly push in copious moisture off the Atlantic and a tight pressure gradient will prompt high winds out of the North and NW on Sunday. Metro Washington up through NYC should be warm enough for rain on Sunday, however, inland and mountains will be wedged with colder air. Freezing rain, wet snow and some sleet should continue in these areas on Sunday, buffeted by strong winds making travel a risky proposition. West Virginia and interior locations north of the Mason-Dixon line will change to heavy, wet snow on Sunday with a swath of white stuff approaching one foot from Scranton, PA to Syracuse, NY and up to Aroostook County, Maine.

Models remain varied except for locations south of VA I-64 where there is good agreement. There remain many unanswered questions because the precise timing and track of the primary Low are not guaranteed...nor is off-shore distance of where the secondary Low will begin organizing. Please continue to monitor developments through reliable local media and at our Winter StormCenter. Current watches/warnings for Mid-Atlantic here.

Mid-Atlantic WX.com features one of the few real-time wet bulb temperatures in the region...advanced visitors will want to check wet bulb trends from our wx station located in Lexington, VA by clicking here.

I'll update the blog this evening.

UPDATE: 5:00PM. Delayed but not denied. Precip won't get into region until a few hours later than advertised. Looks like late morning to mid-afternoon from southwest to northeast. Location of coastal Low may be slightly south...more off-shore NC than VA/NC. This feature should push a bit warmer air inland to the Alleghenies, meaning more rain/freezing rain and a little sleet west of the Blue Ridge, south of I-66. Prolonged freezing rain possible from Blue Ridge west over the valleys and into the Foothills before transitioning to mostly snow in WV. Ice Storm WARNING for Southern Shenandoah Valley. No changes interior PA up to New England: heavy snow (rain mix with freezing rain east of I-95).

Backlash winds hit Mid-Atlantic on Sunday and could gust to 50MPH. Freezing rain/drizzle tapers to plain rain in the day, except for higher mountain elevations. This storm will likely be similar to several last winter: wintery mix with dangerous ice but very little snow south of the Mason-Dixon Line.

Another update later tonight.

UPDATE: 11:15PM. Tonight's GFS model appears to be really holding onto the primary Low before the secondary (coastal) Low gets cranked. Meanwhile, High Pressure is moving from the Lakes to New England and its clockwise rotation will push cold air on east winds inland...setting up the potential for a cold wedge (CAD). Tricky part of the forecast is timing how long the Low now organizing over TX/western GOM will hang on. Looks like this Low will transport sufficient warm air aloft (above the surface) to keep the initial precipitation generally wet all the way inland to the Blue Ridge south of the Mason-Dixon line. Very tricky to pin this down but confidence increases there will be mostly rain for Virginia to the Blue Ridge. If enough cold air hangs in the valleys and the foothills there could be a prolonged period of freezing rain/drizzle in those areas...but I'm leaning away from thinking temps are below freezing all day west of the Blue Ridge. 

The trend is warmer and less snow down the east coast south of Portsmouth, NH.

Locally, our wx station in Lexington, VA shows how close this is going to be. Here's our real-time temperature graph (click for our wx station):



Notice at 10PM Friday night the temperature was 31.5° and quickly climbed to 37° before again dipping downward. We'll see how long the temperature drops below freezing overnight.

Metro DC-Baltimore-Philly trending more wet than frozen but some sleet and a period of freezing rain aren't ruled out.

Overall, warming trend seems underway south of the PA Turnpike while most of Upstate NY and Northern New England get dumped on with heavy snow totals exceeding 6 inches while the northern side of this region should expect widespread totals exceed 12-15 inches!

Next update Saturday morning. Have a good night.
 
 
Olga to the South...And a Nor'easter to the North!
Tuesday, December 11

OLGA: the Subtropical Storm is moving over Hispaniola. Interestingly, convection is pulling in closer to the center, rather than the messy displacement over 150 miles away...and...winds may be increasing closer to the center. A Hurricane Hunter flight is inbound and the NHC notes recon may verify what this suggests: Olga is becoming a tropical storm (warm core). Despite the curiosity, Olga is in trouble. There is good reason the island is called "The Blade" and Olga will be sliced by mountainous terrain and increasing wind shear aloft. The cyclone should dissipate by Thursday after dumping heavy (life threatening) rains over Hispaniola, Jamaica and Eastern Cuba. Stay up to date with Olga by visiting our HurricaneCenter.

WEEKEND NOR'EASTER: High Pressure steering Olga to the W-WSW is also deflecting nasty weather and fatal ice storms to the north of the Mid-Atlantic...producing another record breaking day in the region This is easily seen on today's surface map below (NOTE: this graphic will NOT update!).

Notice the High Pressure "H" off South Carolina; this is referred to as the "Southeast Ridge" and pumps warm, moist air up over the Southeast, North-Central Gulf and Mid-Atlantic States. You'll see a series of Lows "L" riding around the edge of the Ridge...this is the dividing line between warm/sunny and cold/icy.

Low Pressure will come up from the Lower Mississippi Valley this weekend and pop a secondary Low east of the Delmarva Peninsula on Sunday. This coastal Low will bomb out and provide the season's first Nor'easter (Noel produced similar conditions but wasn't a true Nor'easter). You can see how the models think this will go on the graphic below showing today's 12Z runs (click graphic for current maps).



I believe this will pan out although at 4+ days out, the track will shift before the storm actually gets going on the weekend. This storm will bring renewed clouds, wind and some rain to the Northern Mid-Atlantic States with wet snow a possibility along the interior mountains. The I-95 Corridor to Boston probably will be rain. This could be a major snow producer from NE PA up into Northern New England, so folks in that area should stay glued to local forecasts for this weekend.
 
 
Subtropical Storm Olga.
Monday, December 10

OLGA: There was a time when a named storm in December was an extremely unusual event but here we are with another storm at the same time everyone is holiday shopping. While we were done with named storms in early October, 2006, I recall an Invest on Christmas Day, 2005 and spent New Year's Eve doing model maps for "Zeta"!  2003 and 2004 each featured a named storm in December (Odette and Otto, respectively). December is the month for "O's"!

Olga is "subtropical" meaning it has characteristics of both a warm and cold core cyclone. The storm is not expected to become totally tropical. The center of circulation is well-defined, albeit rather broad and is not likely to wind up tightly over the next two days.

San Juan buoy link HERE.
San Juan Radar HERE.

Current view here (click for our HurricaneCenter)



The High Pressure Ridge bringing the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic unseasonably warm and muggy weather is located to the Northwest of Olga...this is the quadrant depicting the best outflow on the satellite image. As noted in yesterday's blog, the storm will be steered by the Ridge on a westbound or WSW track. Modest 15 kt wind shear should enable they cyclone to strengthen slightly before shear increases and the storm crosses Hispaniola. This should put the kibosh on Olga, with no intensification forecast by any model. Heavy rain and fairly strong winds will plague Haiti and the Dominican Republic before the weakened storm takes aim at Jamaica and central-eastern Cuba late Wednesday as a Tropical Depression.

Olga will not recurve in time to hold together or threaten the United States.

Quick update tomorrow morning. Have a good night.
 
 
INVEST 94L Approaching the Caribbean...Development Possible...And...
Mid-Atlantic Melt Down Coming This Week.
Sunday, December 9

TROPICS: Unusual late season disturbance has become Invest 94L. Last Friday the models began jumping on this but I am somewhat surprised "the blob" is holding together. Impressive, especially in December. It is no small feat for a tropical cyclone to track west into the Caribbean at this time of year, however that's what the "hurricane" models and the Canadian are showing. As Maxwell Smart said" very interesting".



Upper level winds are not particularly conducive for development but shear will be modes over the next couple of days (another oddity this time of year). Sea Surface Temps (SSTs) are supportive of some development and in short, this may become a Tropical Depression. The NHC is even more bullish and hints this could be a Subtropical or Tropical Storm.

Even with some development this system will need to steer clear of Hispaniola to have any chance of survival. Right now, it appears a general westerly track brings the system north of Puerto Rico before shifting more to the WSW and passing near or over Hispaniola, so we'll need to closely monitor any future development. A major difference in December storms is the frequency of frontal boundaries coming down from the US and were this September, I'd be somewhat concerned about Florida, but we'll watch and see. With or without a name (Olga) this event will bring rain and storms to the Leeward and Greater Antilles Islands early next week.

Yes, Premium Service hurricane model map subscribers are still able to access current model maps on Invest 94!

Mid-Atlantic Warm Up: While freezing rain and some wet snow plague the Ohio Valley, Upstate NY, PA and the Northeast, High Pressure sets up over the Southeastern Atlantic and adjacent waters. This Ridge (somewhat similar to a Bermuda High) will pump warm and humid air up from the South and deliver hi temps ranging from 10 to 20 degrees above normal this week! Tonight we've seen a Stationary Front stall due to this high pressure area and that front has been the focus of thunderstorms over West Virginia (more December weirdness!) That front will ebb south slightly and then return north as a Warm Front, allowing balmy above normal temperatures to stick around for a few days. By Friday, temps will again drop as a weak Cold Front approaches with a stronger boundary on its heels. A potent storm in the Upper Great Lakes means we can't rule out a return of snow showers in the weekend forecast for interior and mountain locations of the Mid-Atlantic. Some models suggest an active storm sequence for the region beginning next weekend, but confidence is low at this time. It does appear we'll enter an active weather pattern around the 13th...but questions remain if the Southeast Ridge will  return, keeping the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern US warm and dry after December 16th. If you like a warm December, you'll really like most of next week!
 
 
First Snow Possible For Portions of Interior Mid-Atlantic!
Tuesday, December 4

A quick Alberta Clipper storm is rapidly approaching the Mid-Atlantic States and will cross the region early Wednesday. There isn't a great deal of moisture associated with this system, but enough to trigger some light accumulating snow for part of the interior Mid-Atlantic.

Atmosphere is very dry under High Pressure that will be dented by the approaching Alberta Low...as such, any precipitation will be slow to reach the surface. Radar will likely display precip not reaching the ground (virga) before things moisten up sufficiently for anything reaching the ground. As such, it looks like some snow may begin falling overnight tonight for:

The WV Panhandle and much of central/northern WV,
South/central Ohio,
Northern Shenandoah Valley and western I-66 Corridor,
Blue Ridge Mountains, north of Afton Mountain.

Totals in these locations should remain below three inches, except higher amounts along the western slopes of the Alleghenies.

Precipitation in the form of rain/wet snow should migrate east on Wednesday morning and could impact the commute in the Metro DC-BAL vicinity...check forecasts tonight and fist thing in the morning. Visit our Winter StormCenter for real-time information.

The I-64 corridor from Staunton/Waynesboro to slightly east of Charlottesville should also see accumulating snow before a changeover to rain/drizzle. Tricky call but accumulations should be less than two inches.

Behind the Clipper, reinforced cold air builds back in to keep temps cold into the weekend. Saturday and Sunday should see flow shift out of the Southwest and temps will rebound to near of slightly above normal. Late Sunday or Monday morning another system will ride along a stationary boundary over southern PA...bringing another opportunity for precipitation.
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