Scott's Nov 2007

Mid-Atlantic Radar

Scott's November, 2007 Blog
(blog descends chronologically)

Wicked Cold Front Says: Ba-Bye to Indian Summer in the East.
Wednesday, November 14

A strong Cold Front approaching the Eastern US will quickly put the kibosh on Indian Summer and pull in much colder air with the "s" word in some local forecasts.

Warm air from the southwest is tonight streaming up ahead of the advancing boundary (balmy 55° as this is written at 10:30PM) will be pushed off shore by Thursday afternoon. Low Pressure moves over the Northeastern US, increasing and shifting winds while kicking off Lake Effect Snows and some light snow in possible over the western PA mountains and the western slopes of the Alleghenies of north central WV. Rainfall over one inch is likely over Downeast Maine and Northern New England. Time to blow the dust off this web cam link from the base of Sugarloaf Mountain in Maine...click HERE.

As High Pressure builds in from the North a strong pressure gradient will again develop, producing widespread 25-30MPH winds across the Ohio Valley, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Higher elevations could see winds gusting perhaps to 45MPH by Thursday afternoon.

Temps tumble across the entire region Thursday night with a fair chance for diminishing rain to change to light snow could accumulate for the Poconos, Adirondacks and maybe even the Catskills. The traditionally favorable western slopes of the Alleghany Mountains of WV/VA could also see a dusting to perhaps an inch by Friday morning. Below normal temperatures will hold into the weekend.

Next on the agenda will be another system crossing the Lakes this Saturday...with some showers or a little wet snow. Temperatures moderate slightly as we approach Thanksgiving, with a return of milder air and readings in the upper 50's and lower 60's as you prepare the turkey.

TROPICS: Cat-5 Sidr is a very compact but impressive tropical cyclone now taking a bead on the India-Bangladesh border. Major cyclones in the Indian Ocean are not common; especially in November. Very dangerous situation.

Quiet in the Atlantic. A "blob" east of the Bahamas will not develop due to strong wind shear...elsewhere, nothing brewing over the next 2-3 days.

I skipped analysis of the last three Invests because they were non-events unlikely to develop. I've been scarce here on the blog due to some unanticipated traveling and appreciate the many folks who wrote to inquire if I fell off the face of the Earth ;-). Still trying to perfect the 30-hour day!

An Early "Noel" For New England.
Friday, November 2

Noel comes a little more than seven weeks early to coastal New England. The hurricane clips the OBX today with gusts to tropical storm strength and is now transforming into an Extratropical cyclone...essentially, a Big Dog Nor'easter this weekend. One feature of this type of storm is winds no longer tightly wrap around the center and this means the gusty wind field will expand over the next two days...producing large seas and windy conditions up the coast.

Building seas will be evident along the Eastern and Jersey shores today and tonight as the transforming storm continues tracking to the Northeast. Noel will get rather close to Cape Cod, where there could be gusts to minimal hurricane strength...but certainly sustained winds in excess of 40MPH! The winds and rain will invade interior New England later Saturday. Seas along the coast and up into the Gulf of Maine will eclipse 20 feet with gusts in excess of 60MPH. The storm crashes into Nova Scotia on Sunday.

Behind Noel, arctic air pours into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast with below normal temperatures sliding in by Tuesday night.

Please refer to our HurricaneCenter and Severe WeatherCenter have real-time info and forecasts on Noel.

Noel Cranks Up and Heads North. Tropical Storm Warning for SE FL Coast.
Thursday, November 1

Now sporting 51 KT surface winds, Noel is turning to the North and impacting the Bahamas. A tremendous convective burst occurred early today and this has helped Noel's center jump to the ENE...further away from Florida. This tropical cyclone is now behaving and excellent guidance shows the storm will now begin to accelerate away from Florida and the Southeastern US. Rough surf and white capped waves are already into the Miami Beach area and seas will continue to climb as Noel passes to the east today.

Feeder bands and rain advancing on Miami, FL Radar HERE.

The approaching boundary will scoot Noel away from the US and the storm will go Extratroopical by Friday afternoon. Some strengthening is possible and Noel could even become a hurricane over the open waters of the Atlantic.

Similar track and timing to the "Halloween Hurricane", later called The Perfect Storm in 1991. We don't have the same set-up (thankfully) but this will be a very potent storm as it passes well Southeast Cape Cod and heads toward Nova Scotia. I lived in Portland, Maine and covered The Perfect Storm at the radio station I worked for at the time...do not want to see a repeat of that ever again!

Hope to get another update here at the blog after 10PM tonight.

UPDATE 10:25PM: Hurricane hunters have found Cat-1 winds and Noel has become a hurricane. Given the shear and lack of a nicely stacked (no wise cracks!) core, this surprised me...but Noel has been a challenging tropical cyclone. I'll need to research the last year there was no hurricane in October, yet one in November...interesting season!

Tonight's data will also result in a westward shift in Noel's track...closer to North Carolina and then Long Island, the Cape and Down East Maine. This may result in current Wind Advisories being bumped up to High Wind Warnings or possibly even a Tropical Storm Watch or Warning for coastal counties of North Carolina...perhaps lifting north towards Virginia Beach, VA.

The storm should go Extratropical tomorrow but pack a good punch of wind as it approaches High Pressure Ridging over the Northeast. This pressure gradient will quickly crank up winds for coastal areas of the Mid-Atlantic. Right now it looks like most of the action stays east of the I-95 Corridor but we will closely watch developments...especially if the track should ebb more to the west. Coastal flooding will be a concern, especially at time of local high tides. Despite Extratropical "status", Noel is expected to maintain hurricane force winds as it tracks Northeast toward Nova Scotia!

Interests along the East Coast north of Myrtle Beach, SC should stay informed with NOAA weather radio and reliable local media. Of course, our HurricaneCenter and Severe WeatherCenter have real-time info along with local forecasts.

Real-time Warnings, Watches and Advisories from our Severe WeatherCenter (click map to enlarge)

OBX and then Long Island and Cape Cod could see sustained tropical storm winds, or at least gusts as Noel passes. Heaviest rain will remain off shore on the eastern side of the storm. Winds and high seas will make it into the Gulf of Maine later this weekend.

Next update on Friday morning.

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