Scott's Nov 2006 Blog

Mid-Atlantic Radar

Scott's November, 2006 Blog

Significant Risk of Severe Weather Shifts East on Friday.
Thursday, November 30

November goes out like a lion across the central US and December comes in like a lion for the upper Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A very strong Cold Front continues moving east while High Pressure moves out over the Atlantic...this combination is pumping warm, moist air into the region on southerly winds. The 9:30AM dew point at our wx station here in Lexington is a muggy 62°...outrageous for November 30th!

Current forecast map:

Snow, freezing rain and ice continue to fall behind the frontal boundary in an air mass that is 20 to 30 degrees colder than what lies ahead of the front. This temperature contrast is the battle zone for a significant severe weather event on Friday.

Similar to the November 15-17 event, very strong winds in the Jet Stream are forecast to mix down toward the surface. As the Front crosses the region there should be sufficient instability to produce thunderstorms...downdrafts from these storms will be enhanced and should be capable of producing very strong and damaging bursts of wind. Notice the large area of Wind Advisories at our Severe WeatherCenter.

The Cold Front will reach western sections of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Friday morning...pumping in precipitation and increased winds. Rain and some thunderstorms will migrate east during the day. A line of storms may bow across Upstate NY, PA and perhaps Virginia in the afternoon and there is a slight chance for a Derecho type event. Either way, this storm poses a higher risk of thunderstorms and damaging winds than did the event two weeks ago. Widespread 25-35MPH straight line winds are expected...however...strong thunderstorms could produce rotation and the threat of tornadoes can't be disregarded (especially across PA and the Southern Tier of NY). The Front approaches the Eastern Seaboard on Friday evening and northern New England early Saturday. You'll want to check our Severe WeatherCenter tonight and early Friday, as part of the region may be a MODERATE Risk zone...most unusual for December!

Friday afternoon/early evening is when the widespread severe weather can be expected. I'll update the blog this evening and again Friday morning.

UPDATE: 4:10PM. Time precludes discussing the winter storm lashing the Central Plains as I must focus on what's coming east. If you love wild winter wx ( I do not), visit our Winter StormCenter and read some of the text links. This afternoon it was 69° in Boston while it was snowing and 29° in Dallas, Texas. As Edwin Starr sang in the song War: "Good God, Y'all!"

Weakening High Pressure over the Mid-Atlantic keeps potent storm (mostly) out of our back yard...but the front is still progged to cross on Friday. Several wind advisories have been upgraded to warnings indicating this will be a significant and dangerous wind event. Once the front passes, winds will rip out of the W-NW later on Friday. Rain and storms should be most pronounced north of the I-66 corridor, although the mountains will be very windy and some storms are expected east of the I-95 corridor...especially if there is sunshine in the morning to help trigger thunderstorms.

Batten everything down, folks and check back later tonight for another update on this major weather maker.

UPDATE: 10:45PM. No changes with this update. Some showers are popping up well ahead of the frontal boundary tonight; I was driving up I-81 and drove through a 15 second "mini-monsoon".

Here are some of the 0Z model runs:

While you can't see the GFS (green line), there is good agreement on the track of the Low. South and east of the track will be warm sector: wind, rain and storms. North and west is cold sector with wintry mix, snow, wind and much colder arctic air.

Cold Front clears the Ohio Valley tonight and crosses the interior Northeast and then the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Looks good for southerly winds to increase by daybreak for much of the region then shift and howl behind the front. I'll be surprised if there isn't wind damage or gusts over 60MPH by Friday evening.

Morning update will tune up severe threats and areas. Please check in on Friday and visit our Severe WeatherCenter for live real-time updates.

If you have a NOAA Weather Alert radio, be sure it is turned on. If you don't have one, you should ;) Get one tomorrow or at least ask Santa to bring one. Every home should have this important and inexpensive tool.

Have a good night.

The Cold Cometh With Nasty Cold Front!
Tuesday, November 28

The season's strongest intrusion of cold air continues advancing across the Upper Plains and Rockies...bound for the eastern US later this week. Low Pressure will drag another Cold Front across the US, reaching the eastern United States on Friday. As the boundary separating mild air now in place from the arctic air mass behind the front, strong storms may develop on Thursday from Galveston, TX to Columbus, OH. A modest amount of moisture should reach the Mid-Atlantic on Friday and scattered rumbles or thunderstorms can't be ruled out. It will be quite breezy and some wind damage is possible...as are wind advisories across the region.

Higher elevations may see some wet snow mix in late Friday and early Saturday before the typical dry slot pinwheels in and precipitation gets shut off. Saturday will be the transition day with colder air and below normal temps settling in for Sunday and early next week. With High Pressure Ridging off the East Coast I am wary of any forecast that puts the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast into the Deep Freeze: more likely scenario is sub-average temps for a few days then returning moderation..

But...you know winter is coming soon when Winter Storm Watches go up in North Texas!

As far as the tropics go, there is no computer guidance support for any development this week. You can hear the ticking clock winding down every day.

I'll be back on Thursday morning with a look at the approaching Cold Front.

Invest 95L: Here Today, Gone Tomorrow.
Sunday, November 26

Computer models have failed to initialize on this disturbance since Saturday afternoon. While still north of Panama, Invest 95L is now under stronger wind shear and has become disorganized. This afternoon's NHC Tropical Weather Outlook was written by Stacy Steward and sums it up: SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DIMINISHED... AND TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED HERE OR ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY. By the way, Stacy is a guy; if you ever had the good fortune of meeting him, you'd notice the Hulk Hogan arms...definitely a big guy (and in my opinion, about the best forecaster at NHC)!

It has taken me until November 26 to publicly say I think we're about done with hurricane season.

Away from the tropics the weather turns decidedly colder later this week as a Cold Front sweeps across the US and cooler Canadian High Pressure drops in. The Southeast and Mid-Atlantic will not take the full brunt of this cold outbreak as a Bermuda-type High Pressure Ridge will hold for the next several days. To be sure, the front will bring showers and much cooler temperatures than the previous weekend, but no arctic outbreak in this area. This Ridging deflects storms and prohibits colder air from holding in place for more than a couple of days. I loathe winter so you know I enjoy mid-60's in late November!

Here's why I do not travel on Thanksgiving weekend:

Welcome to the I-81 Corridor! This web cam image shows I-81 between Staunton and Lexington, Virginia at 8:02PM tonight. Where traffic is moving, it is doing so between 45-55MPH. Forecasting hurricanes and severe outbreaks is stressful...driving in that mess is "voluntary stress"...something I can do without.

I hope your travels have been safe and uneventful. I'll be back on Tuesday with another post.

"Invest 95L"...And...
The Coming Cold!
Saturday, November 25

A wobbly disturbance in the SW Caribbean, north of Panama, yesterday became Invest 95L. Current satellite views HERE. A nice flare-up of thunderstorms popped up this morning and the Invest looks better today than it did yesterday. The Low Level Center is also visible, demonstrating evident circulation. There is a chance this becomes Tropical Depression 10 and it will remain mostly stationary and have some time to develop. With only slight wind shear anticipated over the next two days, the system should slowly migrate to the west or WNW this weekend...most likely moving onto Central America early next week.

There is nothing out there to steer Invest 95L north into the Gulf or toward the US. In fact, a Cold Front will cross the advance down from the Upper Plains this week and will prohibit any development in the Caribbean from threatening the US. Certainly something to keep an eye on, but no threat for the Gulf of Mexico.

A major change is coming next week for the western and central US as a Cold Front advances and opens the door for the coldest air of the season! This is in response to another storm now hitting the PacNW...it will move East and pull a very cold boundary across much of the US. The Southeast and Mid-Atlantic will remain near and above normal, thanks to High Pressure pumping in warmer air from the south. Ahead of the approaching Cold Front winds will shit from the SW, keeping the delightful temps in place! But, all good things must come to an end (especially in December) and the front should cross the region by Thursday. As the trof swings through the Mid-Atlantic it is possible Low Pressure will develop and an interesting scenario develops for the weekend. Not sure on that but it looks probable the frontal boundary will bring at least showers and chilly, raw weather to the Mid-Atlantic Thursday before cooler air drains in for the weekend.

Next post on Invest 95L will be on Sunday.

"Over the (swollen) river and through the (muddy) woods,
to Grandmother's house we go..."
Thursday, November 23

At 10AM, the nagging coastal storm is located due east of Norfolk and the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay; bringing wind and rain to areas along and near the coast. With High Pressure over the Maritimes moving out of the way, while High Pressure builds in behind the storm, a tight pressure gradient remains over the Northeast. Winds may still gust in excess of 40-45MPH from the Virginia Eastern Shore up to P-town on the Cape. Coastal flooding and moderate rainfall will dampen holiday festivities across eastern PA and the Northeast from Binghamton, NY to Portsmouth, NH. Temps are overall now above freezing, so pockets of dangerous freezing rain should warm to plain rain this afternoon.

High Pressure moving in behind the storm will pump up temps to normal or above average reading through the weekend and into next week! Generally dry conditions will make "Black Friday" shopping more comfortable (well, at least in the parking lots!). The Sunday return home commute should likewise be easier with tranquil weather.

Weekend Outlook:

Arctic cold advances across the Upper Plains later next week and may drain into the Mid-Atlantic States late next week...just in time for December.

PARTLY PERSONAL: I would like to take this opportunity to thank you for visiting Mid-Atlantic WX.com. Whatever the weather, this web site is always busy and I am grateful to all who depend upon Mid-Atlantic WX.com for timely information. YOU are one of the reasons I again am so thankful this Thanksgiving holiday. I'm looking forward to spending the balance of the day overeating ;) and watching the Dallas Cowboys with family. Friday is log splitting day, so I'll be back at the blog on Saturday. Have a wonderful holiday and safe travels. Happy Thanksgiving.

Coastal Storm: "SSDD"
Wednesday, November 22

Same Storm (watch it!), Different Day. Our coastal Low has barely budged in the last 24 hours with the center currently located just off Cape Fear, NC (streaming cam from Bald Head Island HERE). The storm remains cut off from the Jet Stream but will start moving tonight as High Pressure to the north begins to shift. Yesterday's snow/sleet in North Carolina was was a surprise and a curiosity...check out this comment from NWS in Melbourne, FL:

...HAVE RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT LIQUID PRECIP MIXED WITH SNOW FLAKES/FLURRIES ACROSS VOLUSIA AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES.

You know it's whacky weather when FL and SC get flurries before Virginia!

The big story is wind and rain across the Mid-Atlantic. Numerous wind gusts above 65MPH (equivalent to a strong tropical storm) observed along the NC coast yesterday. Even well inland here at Mid-Atlantic WX.com, winds have consistently been between 20-25MPH with gusts to 38MPH. Click HERE for our weather station real-time graphics. Today and tomorrow, wind gusts in excess of 50MPH will continue to plague travelers along and east of the jam packed I-95 corridor from central South Carolina all the way into New Jersey. A 56MPH gust was reported this morning at Norfolk NAS. West of I-95, from Philly to the Blue Ridge Mountains, winds will continue gusting from 35-50MPH...while gusts to 40MPH can be expected down the I-81 corridor as well as across the western Carolinas.

The rain continues piling up over much of North Carolina with widespread Flood Warnings for the eastern two thirds of the State. Rain will continue today as will flood concerns in SE Virginia...east of I-95, south of I-64. While heavy rain will diminish across NC today it will continue this afternoon over eastern Virginia and begin ebbing north late tonight and Thanksgiving.

Rain impacts eastern PA through southern New England on Thanksgiving and sleet/snow is possible in the Poconos and possibly east of I-88 in Upstate NY where cooler air will be locked in near the surface.

High Pressure builds in behind the departing storm this weekend...bringing pleasant weather with near to slightly above normal temperatures. Travelers don't like today's weather in the affected area, but shoppers will revel in this weekend's conditions!

I'll be back tomorrow with another update here at the blog. As Rocky Balboa once said: "For you it's Thanksgiving, for me, it's Thursday".

Safe travels!

UPDATE: 4:50PM. Freezing Rain Advisory this evening for the northern Shenandoah Valley Interstate-81 corridor. Areas of freezing rain have developed along higher elevations of the Blue Ridge. Some FZRA is reported down to 1,000' along this section of I-81...most likely areas are along the mountains and I-81 from Harrisonburg to Front Royal, VA. Our weather station is south of the advisory area at an elevation of 1,100 feet: current conditions HERE.

In addition, there are numerous accidents and delays due to weather and heavy traffic. Travel caution is highly advised.

Late tonight, slightly warmer air moves in and temps will rise above freezing and the FZRA threat will diminish.

Coastal Low Coming Together...And...
The "S" Word in South Carolina!
Tuesday, November 21

Our Thanksgiving storm is now getting organized and will be cranking by Wednesday afternoon. A great tool for monitoring off shore low pressure development is the 3 hour press fall map from Unisys:

As this is written Tuesday morning, pressure falls are easily seen off the Carolinas and this is the focal point for this event. As suggested previously, the storm isn't moving very much, so we are in "sit and spin mode" today. Note, rising pressure over the Northeast...that's Ridging that will block the storm from quickly moving up the coast. The difference in pressure (gradient) along the Carolinas coasts and into SE Virginia; where winds will continue to increase.

A potential silver lining is shown below: computer models are getting in better agreement on moving the storm away from land east of OBX (recall the GFS was consistently tracking Low Pressure right along the coast).

The storm is pumping in moderate to heavy rain into the Carolinas and this has produced reports of wet SNOW this morning from Conway and Georgetown, SC, and I'd suspect other locations to the west in the Foothills. As temps close to the surface rise above freezing the morning the snow threat will end but it's interesting South Carolina sees snow earlier than Virginia and much of Pennsylvania.

Rainfall totals of two inches today for Charleston, SC north to the VA/NC border...lesser amounts for inland areas. Wednesday-Thursday totals should exceed two inches, especially for eastern NC.

Updates precipitations forecast maps:

Through Wednesday:

And through Thanksgiving:

The storm impacts the Norfolk area later Wednesday and Thanksgiving with moderate to heavy rain totals of two to four inches. Inland areas should be spared from the heaviest rain due to High Pressure (30.42" and rising at 8AM in Lexington, VA)...so the storm remains largely a coastal event.

Winds will howl across the Carolinas and Virginia coast and flooding watches and warnings are now in effect. Check our Severe StormCenter for current warnings, watches and advisories.

We'll continue to monitor this event, however it looks like the Metro NYC and southern New England areas may miss the heavy precipitation.

Web Cams:
Pawleys Island, SC streaming video
Myrtle Beach, SC at Springmaid Pier
Wrightsville Beach, NC streaming surf (nice!)
Kill Devil Hills (OBX) at Avalon Pier
Virginia Beach, VA

Next update on Wednesday morning.

Coming Coastal Storm = "Man The Oars!"
Monday, November 20

General outlook for Thanksgiving weekend continues to look good for the East, of course, with the exception of a very strong coastal storm pulling together today. This upcoming event should grow to SIGNIFICANT status, meaning there will be extensive inconvenience and the potential for weather warnings in the affected areas.

First, here's how the Ensemble models look:

Low Pressure cranks up southeast of Hilton Head Island, SC today. The rain and increasing wind begin tonight from the Outer Banks of North Carolina to the east central Florida coast. The storm will be "cut off" from the Jet Stream (not good news) so it will *not* quickly move up the coast and away from land. This will permit moderate to heavy rain to pummel the Georgia and Carolina coasts tomorrow and Wednesday, before expanding north into eastern VA and the Delmarva.

How much rain? Take a look at our precipitation forecasts:

Tuesday-Wednesday:

Wednesday-Thursday:

If this pans out, Charleston, SC up through Wilmington and the OBX are looking at five to nine inches of rain! Wind is also a growing concern as it appears sustained speeds of 30-40MPH and 50-60MPH gusts are probable off shore with tropical storm force winds over the coastal waters. Were I on the Outer Banks, I would be preparing for effects of a tropical storm! Gusty winds will spread inland (west of the I-95 corridor) but will be strongest close to the shoreline. Obviously, this will produce large swells, powerful waves and above normal tides and flooding should be expected. A New Moon tonight will enhance high tide surges.

This storm poses grave danger to marine interest off the Southeast US coast. This from the High Seas Forecast for the Western Atlantic:

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING
36 HOUR FORECAST: LOW 32N 78W 1009 MB. FORECAST WINDS 50 TO 65 KT SEAS 20 TO 26 FT
BETWEEN 180 NM AND 240 NM NE QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE FORECAST WINDS 35 TO 50 KT
SEAS 16 TO 22 FT WITHIN 300 NM NE QUADRANT...AND S OF 33N W OF 78W OVER FORECAST WATERS.

The powerful storm will begin tracking NNE as High Pressure to the north relinquishes its blocking effect; Norfolk/Virginia Beach can expect gloomy weather and gusty winds by Thanksgiving.

One scenario is consistently depicted by the GFS (green line on the above model map) could verify. The storm sits and spins off the Carolinas before hugging the coast over the weekend. Not good, folks! While encouraged by the Ensemble forecasts that track the Low away from land, that is not certain at this time. This event could produce adverse weather from Virginia's Eastern Shore all the way to Boston this week...something we'll need to watch and continue updating here at the blog.

Best suggestion for now is if you are along or near the I-95 corridor, keep an eye on your local forecast (especially if traveling) and visit the blog and our Severe WeatherCenter for updates.

Get the latest satellite images along the Southeast US coast by clicking HERE. Next post will be Tuesday morning and I'll include some cool web cam links you can use to see how the storm develops!

Tranquil, Except For *Significant* Coastal Storm, Thanksgiving Week.
Sunday, November 19

Much of the East catches a break for the all-important Thanksgiving Weekend. A couple of impulses coming from the west will bring clouds to the Mid-Atlantic over the next 36 hours...sprinkles and snow showers are expected west of the Blue Ridge, but any accumulations (I highly doubt) will be light as these short waves are moisture starved. Still, elevations over 2,500 feet may see some white stuff late tonight and Monday morning. The NW mountains of NC as well as Extreme SW VA and eastern WV have the best opportunity for seeing snow...but again...accumulations, if any, will be light. Temps will be cool, but seasonal through Wednesday before moderating, so most of us will enjoy a comfortable Thanksgiving Day.

A strong coastal storm will affect the Eastern Seaboard later this week with potential to be a long-lived, pesky and annoying event. Low Pressure will organize and strengthen off the Southeast coast and is expected to "cut-off" from the Jet Stream...this is *always* a problem! Thinking right now is the storm will be a weather maker east of the I-95 corridor from Charleston, SC up into NJ. Rains will migrate inland by late Tuesday, with gusty winds approaching 40MPH. The storm could really sock-in eastern NC (particularly OBX) and SE VA, posing threats to Wednesday-Thursday commuting. Beach erosion and minor coastal flooding is also a possibility. Cut off Lows are problematic because they do not track quickly along; but rather, they on occasion sit and spin. This would increase the nasty weather as well as the potential for flooding. One hopes this menace will get tugged along as the Jet Stream shifts east later this week. Folks along and near the coast from NJ to Savannah need to closely monitor forecasts later this week. I'll have daily blogs here at Mid-Atlantic WX.com as the storm unfolds.

Three Images From Thursday: These three Interstate web cam images were all saved from
1:30PM-1:34PM last Thursday.

Here's I-395 under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning. This is a highway passing close to The Pentagon (obscured by rain, but visible on the right), near Washington DC in Northern Virginia.

Heading south on I-95, this area was under a Tornado Warning shortly after this image was saved:

Meanwhile, here's what the weather was like about one mile from the Mid-Atlantic WX.com office, in Lexington, VA! Image is Rt. 11 and I-64 with Blue Ridge Mountains in background.

Looking at this picture, it is hard to imagine over two inches of rain fell in the morning and there were numerous creeks out of banks, along with urban flooding!

I'll be back on Monday with another blog.

Dangerous Storm Crossing Mid-Atlantic With At Least 1 Killer Tornado Will Bring Quick Rain/Wind Episode to Northeast.
Thursday, November 16

Heavy rains continue to pile up across Mid-Atlantic with widespread 1.5+ inch totals at 9:00AM. Numerous flood and flash flood alerts now in effect (click map for Severe StormCenter):

Many locations in the region will exceed 1.5 inches of rain with 2-3.5 inch totals possible along the mountains and also closer to the coast. This main batch of rain is moving north with heavy bands reaching Metro NYC by late afternoon and then Boston late tonight. Bands of embedded thunderstorms should develop in the Northeast and will produce heavy rain and strong winds...particularly over Southern New England. River, stream and creek flooding could be possibly from eastern CT into southern NH/ME tonight and Friday.

As advertised here last night, Tornado Watches were added to include eastern NC and portions of central/southeast VA. A tornado reported to be large destroyed numerous homes in Riegelwood, NC (north and inland from Myrtle Beach, west of Wilmington); there are fatalities. I checked a storm chase blog and have seen reports of 3 to 5 persons killed by this tornado. Horrible. Night time tornadoes...even small twisters... are extremely dangerous. A severe thunderstorm in Goldsboro, NC has within the last hour blown in windows at a school, injuring one student. Several Tornado Warnings have been posted this morning in NC, along with Flood Warnings in VA (including Lexington where I am located). I am concerned tornadic activity is possible along I-95 and populated areas of Richmond, Norfolk and the Delmarva as convective bands will hold together at least until early afternoon. Tornado Watches will probably shift east and north by this afternoon. Use caution and monitor our Severe StormCenter for real-time info.

As the Upper Low departs, rain tapers to showers over the Mid-Atlantic, while the western mountain slopes should see a change to snow showers, but with no accumulation. Temperatures will descend to slightly below normal this weekend for much of the region. Generally speaking the late week forecast into the weekend and early next week will be cool, calm and dry.

Please send us any storm or flood photos! You can easily forward cell phone pictures to weather@midatlanticwx.com. Thanks!

I am on the road again today (unfortunately, not storm chasing)...if conditions warrant, I'll get another post online this afternoon. Otherwise, I'll be back Saturday.

UPDATE: 12:25PM. Tornado Warnings indeed progressing as suggested here this morning...several TOR along and near I-95 from Petersburg toward Washington DC. Please continue to closely monitor this dangerous situation. Along and west of the Blue Ridge, partly cloudy skies now prevail with no additional storms in the offing. There has been widespread flash flooding in this area however creeks and urban flooding will soon recede. Rivers will rise and folks in flood prone areas down the I-81 corridor south of Winchester should remain alert.

Sad to report there are nine confirmed dead in from the Riegelwood, NC tornado. There's no accurate way to speculate on F strength from looking at pictures or video, but I can assure you this was at least an F-2 tornado...damage is far too extensive for an F-0 or F-1. NWS will have a preliminary report tonight. And yes, this tornado hit a mobile home park. These stories rip at the heart because we try so hard to educate and warn people about severe weather, especially tornadoes at night. ABC11 is streaming coverage of this disaster that you can see by clicking here: http://abclocal.go.com/wtvd/story?section=local&id=4653250

I may be able to update the blog after 10PM this evening...remain vigilant for tornadoes and severe storms in eastern VA as well as MD, DE and SE PA this afternoon!

UPDATE: 11:15PM. It appears the Riegelwood, NC tornado claimed eight lives, not nine as was widely reported earlier today. At this time the storm is dumping heavy rain over the Northeast and renewed flooding will be a concern this weekend.

Winds will remain breezy behind the storm and there remains a chance for some mountain snow showers early Friday morning. Winds across most of the Mid-Atlantic remain out of the SW but will shift to the Northwest as deep Low Pressure pulls away. Friday temperatures will warm only slightly above overnight lows so it will feel much cooler than the last two days.

On Sunday, an Alberta Clipper type storm scoots across the Lakes and approaches the Mid-Atlantic, however, it will transport little in the way of moisture. High Pressure over the Plains will shift east and push a trof off the East Coast, where some models are suggesting a coastal storm develops east of Florida over the Atlantic next week. We'll need to monitor upcoming computer model runs in the event something spins up and threatens the Carolina and Virginia coast next week.

As we close in on the important long Thanksgiving weekend, the High over the central US will slide offshore, putting the region on the back side of the ridge. Clockwise winds should push temps up above normal.

I'll be back on Saturday. Take care!

A Barrage of Bad Weather to Batter Southeast and Mid-Atlantic...And...
Tsunami Warning!
Wednesday, November 15

Severe weather event continues to develop today across LA/MS/AL where Tornado Watches are in effect.
Thunderstorms, heavy rain, hail and tornadoes will spread into the Southeast today...current outlook from the SPC below:

I strongly believe we'll see numerous Supercells develop today and there is a real risk of *large* tornadoes! Very deep Low Pressure continues to strengthen and will pull a squall line across the area outlined in the MODERATE risk zone above. The front is zipping along while crashing into juicy dewpoints and this causes caution regarding night time tornadoes. Folks in the expanding severe weather watch and warning areas need to closely monitor current weather and advisory information. Keep tabs on the latest at our Severe Weather Center.

As the potent storm tracks toward the Great Lakes, accumulating snow is possible over portions of the Ohio Valley and Michigan...check our Winter Storm Center for more.

Thursday, the Cold Front crosses the Mid-Atlantic, slamming into juicy air pumped in ahead of the boundary. Strong winds and heavy rain will be the main feature, with total rainfall of 1 to 3 inches possible. Thunderstorms should be numerous, especially near and east of the I-95 corridor. This area may also be threatened by isolated tornadoes. The risk of flooding in these areas will expand up into the Metro NYC area by Thursday night.

I'll be back this evening with another update and discussion on tomorrow's weather. Please check back then.

TSUNAMI WARNING! Conflicting reports of a 7.8 or 8.1 magnitude earthquake this morning in the North Pacific produced Tsunami Warnings for Japan and part of Alaska, while a Tsunami Watch was in effect for Washington and British Columbia. More information HERE.

UPDATE: 3:00PM. Computer models continue trending toward a quick 1+ inches of rain for much of the east over the next 24 hours. Note the heavy 1.5 to 3 inch stripe from Tallahassee, FL roughly to Roanoke, VA with lesser amounts to Lake Erie. Biggest severe threat remains along and east of I-95 through the Mid-Atlantic States.

Current map of today's storm reports (click map for more details):

Another update this evening.

UPDATE: 9:40PM. Current view of this expansive storm visible on this Water Vapor image (click to animate)

This image and the linked animated loop show a tremendous fetch of moisture being pulled in from the Gulf of Mexico. I see no reason to back down from earlier rainfall totals...in fact...the 1 inch plus areas may expand on Thursday afternoon and evening. Rain will be heavy for many locations from the Florida Panhandle to the Lakes and east to Metro NYC. Minor urban ponding and flooding should be anticipated as the Upper Low tracks into the Lakes on Thursday.

That juicy air is warm and this will be reflected in overnight temperatures along the entire Southeast and Mid-Atlantic (temp at our wx station in Lexington, VA has risen slightly tonight).

This system will continue producing strong storms and possible tornadoes overnight...particularly for the Low Country of SC and coastal Georgia. Charleston to Brunswick need to remain alert overnight as night time tornadoes (especially in and near thunderstorms) are extremely dangerous! As I'm writing this update, a new Tornado Watch box has gone in effect for interior SC/NC, including Charlotte. Take seriously any tornado information in these areas...it is possible new overnight Tornado Watch boxes may be issued...extremely unusual!

Winds and severe weather remain challenging. Low level jet will be screaming with 60 to 70 knot winds as low as 5'000 feet. These winds may get pulled down even closer to the surface in areas of heavy rain. I'd think Mid-Atlantic ridge tops will see gusts of 30-40MPH tomorrow, but can't guarantee strong winds mix all the way down. It will be quite breezy with gusty winds, especially near storms. The atmosphere across the Mid-Atlantic will be marginally unstable (at best), therefore I do not think at this time the area gets hammered with thunderstorms. While storms do seem eminent, it's unlikely they will be widespread, even along the approaching frontal boundary. Tornado threat likewise seems small but sufficient to warrant caution and an advisory to check your local forecast and our Severe Weather Center first thing in the morning.

I'm on the road tomorrow but will have a full update in the morning. Have a good night

Thar She Blows!
Significant Storm/Wind Event includes Possible Tornadoes.
Tuesday, November 14

Recall last weekend's behemoth storm in the Pacific Northwest, replete with flooding rains and 18+ inches of snow? It's heading east and bringing a variety of weather! At this time there's excellent model agreement on how this will play out. Here's the 6Z runs from Tuesday morning:

Low Pressure crosses the Rockies, closes off and gets cranked up over Texas while triggering strong to severe storms from TX to LA/AK/MS today. See our Severe Weather Center for MODERATE risk box. Thunderstorms, hail and perhaps some tornadoes are quite possible today, especially over lower AK and northern LA. This set up is typical for dangerous weather: warm moist Gulf air comes in up ahead of Low Pressure pulling much colder air in behind it.

Wednesday, the storm takes aim at the Tennessee Valley, pushing the severe threat into the Southeastern US. Florida south of Tampa to JAX probably miss the severe stuff but the eastern Carolinas could see gusty winds and storms.

This potent system should track up into the Ohio Valley on Thursday before crossing the Lakes and Ontario. We need to closely monitor the frontal boundary late Wednesday into Thursday as there is a fair chance a band of decent thunderstorms cross the Mid-Atlantic States. As the Low moves northeast, it will pump in moisture off the Atlantic and the region may become marginally unstable enough for severe weather. I am watching the 12Z models now coming in and concur with the Storm Prediction Center in thinking it possible for tornadoes to develop along a narrow band of rain and convection.

I think the big feature will be winds as the jet stream aloft will be screaming at well over 110 knots...not sure how much of this mixes down to the surface, but wind damage is a distinct possibility from Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon.

Chilly, but tranquil for the weekend.

Also, note the storm zipping into New England on the above model map...another gloomy day for the Northeast with yet another batch of flooding possible.

TROPICS: Nothing in the Atlantic Basin. New TD-21E (Pacific) is organizing off the SW coast of Mexico and is now 21E NONAME; this indicates the storm will shortly become Tropical Storm Sergio (Valente). Forecast track heads NNW then NW well south of Baja.

I'll be back tomorrow morning with an update on our Southeast/Mid-Atlantic storm threat.

For Whom The Bell Tolls: Me!
Friday, November 10

Thanks to those of you inquiring by email if I fell off the face of the Earth. I was traveling last week, went camping with several Scouts last weekend and promptly became more ill than I recall being in some time. Our camp outing was wonderful, but cold and I'm not one of those who believes cold weather gives you a cold...but my timing is perfect. I have worked and slept for the past four days and still feel terrible, but, on with the show!

TROPICS: All quiet, however, the GFS is trying to spin up a storm in the SW Caribbean later next week. Normally I don't bring up long range fantasies but there is nothing else to discuss. I'll keep an eye on this but typically the GFS suddenly drops these storms.

CONUS: Current pattern continues to hammer the Pacific NW with storms. Meanwhile, a new storm in the Lower Plains heads to the Midwest today...the dividing line between cold air to the north and west and much warmer air to the south and east. "Thundersnow" could be in the offing for Michigan today! Absolutely balmy temperatures for the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast today and tomorrow come to a crashing halt on Sunday as a strong Cold Front crosses the Mid-Atlantic late Saturday and early Sunday. Temps will plunge across the region by as much as 25 degrees and there is fair opportunity for accumulating snow on the western slopes of he Alleganies! This front will affect the entire region...all the way to New Orleans by Sunday. Behind the front, cool High Pressure settles in for early next week and while temperatures will slowly moderate you will know Thanksgiving is coming.

POLITICS: The defeat of Rick Santorum is celebrated here at Mid-Atlantic WX.com. Santorum (R-PA) had endeavored for nearly twenty months to pass legislation that would have severely reduced free access to weather data, while stripping many products away from the National Weather Service. Santorum's staff plainly advocated the proposed law to help private weather companies in his own state (read: Accu-Weather). Story HERE. The bill never made it to the floor and Santorum's defeat will close the book on the so called "Accu-Weather Law".

Another interesting weather story line came from Donald Rumsfeld's "resignation" this week when it was leaked he delayed the release of National Guard personnel to New Orleans immediately after Katrina's landfall. As they say down on the farm: one by one, the chickens all come home to roost.

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