Scott's Oct 2007

Mid-Atlantic Radar

Scott's October, 2007 Blog
(blog descends chronologically)

Noel "Trick or Treat": Changes Course and Foils My Forecast!
Wednesday, October 31

My previous pronouncement that Noel would not track Southwest into Cuba were totally wrong! The cyclone made a devilish turn to the Southwest and spent much of the previous day over the island...sadly, the death toll mounts on nearby Hispaniola and tragically could reach 100.

Noel is slowly strengthening this afternoon, owing to the messy center now being over water. Potent wind shear from the W/WSW continues to blow thunderstorms well east of the now exposed center:

Excellent agreement exists on Noel's likely track: NNW/N the recurving to the NE over the Bahamas. Noel's impact on Florida will be modest as it will be interacting with an advancing trof and most of the weather remains on the eastern side of the LLC. As such, it appears there will be gusty winds along the Florida East Coast. Heavy rain should only be an issue under feeder bands spinning through later Thursday into Friday morning, although QPF maps shows totals all under one inch.

"Surfs Up" for sure with a good chop and ample whitecaps as Noel approaches to the East and then pulls away.

It is doubtful the tropical cyclone will reach hurricane strength near Florida or the SEUS coast. Overall, more of a passing nuisance than a tropical threat for Florida Folks.

Next update on Thursday morning. HAPPY HALLOWEEN!

"The Blade" Nicks Noel...And...More
Foibles and Fraud From FEMA.
Monday, October 29

NOEL: Tropical Storm Noel has crossed and now cleared western Hispaniola..."The Blade" has done its dirty work and disrupted the storm while producing serious flooding. This evening, Noel's disorganized center has emerged over water, just north of Eastern Cuba.

Computer modeling has come into better agreement on the general track for this event. Nice to see the GFS swing around and join the others in taking Noel to the Northwest before recurving away from Florida. The NHC 5PM EDT Forecast/Advisory brings the center more to the west...closer to Florida...however a quick turn to the Northeast is expected. The reason: a huge High Pressure Ridge (1032 mb) is parked literally on top of me here in Virginia. To the south, a weak Stationary Front hangs across Florida and the adjacent Atlantic waters. This High begins to slide off shore on Tuesday (little warmer in the Mid-Atlantic) and another boundary approaches later on Halloween. On Thursday, the trof will be offshore and should take Noel with it...this is why there is excellent agreement Noel's impact on Florida being modest. Of course, things can change and this is being closely monitored here at Mid-Atlantic WX.com but Noel is forecast to be a relatively sheared out storm, meaning winds should be the most noticeable feature in Florida.

It appears Noel's LLC will miss Cuba as it now is just north of the island's eastern tip and should remain on a Northwest track, therefore, the storm can be expected to organize and strengthen on Tuesday. There indeed remains a chance the tropical cyclone becomes a hurricane but wind shear will probably keep this a tropical storm.

FEMA: Anyone reading the blog for a length of time knows my loathing for FEMA predates Katrina. Even with Michael ("Katrina was breathtaking in its surprise") Chertoff and Michael ("What color shirt should I wear tonight") Brown out of FEMA, they still are dealing from the bottom of the deck. As fires raged last Tuesday in California, FEMA decided to call a hasty press conference. News reporters were stretched to the max with live coverage when FEMA gave them fifteen minutes notice. Not surprising, no media showed up, so Pat Philbin, now the ex-director of external affairs for FEMA decided they'd have their own "press conference". The agency wrote a number of softball questions and had employees pretend to be "real" reporters. FEMA's spokesperson was Adm. Harvey Johnson, the agency's Number Two man...he claims to know nothing about the fraud, despite calling several "reporters" by their first name. Even Philbin asked a question during the impromptu event. Why am I not surprised by this agency?

Oh, did you notice FEMA's extremely high profile as fires raged near San Diego? If "yes", FEMA succeeded in their latest credibility ploy. According to a CBS News report, Adm. Johnson has specific orders for staff: the FEMA logo must be displayed prominently on all agency vehicles and all field staff must be sure to wear their FEMA hats and FEMA shirts.

We truly live in the Post-Katrina world.

T.D. Sixteen Ramps Up to "Noel"...And COULD Become a Hurricane.
Sunday, October 28

Special update from the National Hurricane Center:

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 50 MPH.

While it appeared to be a tropical storm, the National Hurricane Center held off pulling the trigger until recon got in there and surprisingly found 50MPH winds. The "fix" at the time of this special upgrade was: 16.50N 71.83W 997.2 mb...slightly west of what the models were printing out. This COULD be significant by shifting the 18Z and the 0Z models west...perhaps closer to Florida. Model intensity forecasts, by the way, have already been a huge bust, so we'll see what more reliable recon shows us. Noel needs only a day or so over water to become a Cat-1 hurricane and if this verifies as I believe it will, we watch a frontal boundary coming down over the Eastern US and placement and strength of building High Pressure.

I'll have another update here at the blog tonight after 10PM.

UPDATE 10:45PM: As noted in the pending 11PM NHC Discussion, Noel has not strengthened this evening. Hurricane Hunters will again be in the storm overnight and we'll have a better handle on the center's location as well as actual max winds.

Trackwise, there is good agreement Noel likely tracks Northwest...passing close or in-between Cuba and Hispaniola prior to rucurving after crossing the Bahamas. It is interesting to see the American AVN/GFSO and the Eta/NAM are absolute outliers on track...taking Noel into the Caribbean south of Jamaica. These solutions are discounted and the NHC track is close to the GFDL, HWRF/HWFI and the UKMET.

Timing on this storm is such that a second frontal boundary coming down across the Eastern US should absorb and deflect Noel, keeping the tropical cyclone. There is no computer model support to the storm to hit Florida at this time. That said, it is likely a moderate tropical storm or perhaps a Cat-1 hurricane will be approaching the Bahamas so folks in the affected areas should closely follow developments at our HurricaneCenter.

INVEST 90L: Possible Tropical Depression This Weekend...
Florida Could Be In Play Next Week!
Saturday, October 27

Low Pressure continues to spin this morning south of Hispaniola as Invest 90L appears to have survived savage wind shear and "The Blade". Puerto Rico continues to be poured upon with three to seven inch rainfall totals likely.

Current enhanced view here (click graphic for more):

Invest 90L is moving to the Southwest with a general track to the SW or W expected today. Wind shear will abate which is why several models are now a "go" on development. Of note, the HWRF/HWFI, NOGAPS and the BAMD version of the "hurricane models" bring the storm up toward South Florida next week. Other models keep it in the Caribbean...as a tropical storm or hurricane. Current estimated wind speed is 30 knots (~35MPH); as such, it is possible Invest 90L may become a Tropical Depression later today.

Interests in the Western Caribbean should now monitor future development and Florida folks would be advised to keep half an eye on this over the weekend. While a turn to the Northwest is not forecast at this time, this option is on the table.

Our Premium Service hurricane model maps are all over this Invest and should "90L" become a Tropical Depression you'll find real-time information at our HurricaneCenter.

I'll update the blog tonight or Sunday morning, depending upon development of the storm.

UPDATE 10:50PM: As commented earlier today, Invest 90L is now Tropical Depression Sixteen. If (when?) TD Sixteen becomes a tropical storm, it will be named Noel.

Other than the SHIPs/DSHP models that develop virtually every system into a hurricane, there IS model support for this to become a hurricane by Tuesday night! The HWRF/HWFI, UKMET and the NOGAPS all get the storm to Cat-1 strength. There's still some uncertainty on track however the TPC/NHC "cone" swings over central Cuba and then recurves into the Bahamas...getting close to Florida. At this time there's reason to believe another CONUS frontal boundary will scoot the storm away from South Florida...but that is not certain. Interests in the Caribbean and Florida should monitor Tropical Depression Sixteen as strengthening is expected.

INVEST 90L...Slow Threat Possible For Central-West Caribbean.
Thursday, October 25

A disturbance located northeast of Puerto Rico is now Invest 90L.

Thunderstorms (blob) are well displaced from the center...this is due to strong wind shear in the region. The center as of this morning is actually located NE of Puerto Rico while storms are well away from the center off to the ENE of the island.

Early guidance suggests the system will track near or over Hispaniola, getting close to Cuba and Jamaica this weekend. Hispaniola is nicknamed "The Blade" for good reason and it may tear apart thunderstorms to the extent reorganization will be slow. Wind shear must abate and move away for this system to get going...right now that is "iffy", but possible. Looking at our Premium Service hurricane model maps, the GFS doesn't see the storm, probably due to its forecast of fierce shear.

Flip side of the coin, some organization holds until Low Pressure can wrap up over the very warm waters of the Western Caribbean late this weekend or early next week. I'd like to see the 12Z and tonight's 0Z runs of the UKMET (very good this year in the Caribbean and GOM) before sounding the alert. Right now, interests at and east of Jamaica should monitor progress and potential development of Invest 90L.

RAIN, RAIN, RAIN! Pretty good soaking of liquid sunshine here in the Mid-Atlantic over the past 24 hours. Upper Level Low discussed last week has helped pump in deep moisture from the Atlantic wile a Stationary Front over the area has kept the water works on. Urgently needed rain totals approaching and exceeding one inch have really helped make a dent in the deficit.

Rain...But Very Little SVR WX...Approaching Mid-Atlantic
Friday, October 19

If you want to know why the severe weather threat is rapidly waning, look at the picture below:

Early afternoon view looking East toward the Blue Ridge Mountains near Lexington, Virginia (snapped on my cell phone). Solid low deck mingled with debris clouds all over the place have cut off sunshine this morning. These conditions are fairly widespread across the Mid-Atlantic and as such I doubt we'll see much more than some needed and welcomed rainfall. Looking at the recent RUC model runs, there's very little instability in the area and while CAPEs are low to marginal and Lifted Indices are so-so, cloud cover has limited temps and prospects of a severe event in the region. East of I-95 (especially SE VA where sun has popped out a bit), there could be isolated strong thunderstorms, probably not much more.

Dew points remain extremely high for mid-October...64-65° at our wx station...and generally 62°+ for the region so if there's sunshine for 30 minutes or so storms could quickly fire up.

Cooler and dryer air come in for the weekend (nice!). Model madness later next week as the Euro is on board with the GFS in closing off a Low and setting a trof over the Eastern US (cooler/rainy), while other models hold High Pressure with above normal temps. I was discounting the GFS solution but having the Euro sniffing out the same thing means we'll need to watch how the models develop over the weekend.

Severe Outbreak Expands Today and Tonight...And...
Tornado Tears Up Pensacola!
Thursday, October 18

The current severe weather episode continues today, unfortunately with fatalities to report from Paris, Missouri, where two people died in a mobile home hit by a tornado. This morning, a tornado produced damage and injuries in Pensacola, Florida. The web cam for WEAR-TV caught this image (click to visit their site)

Storms along the Gulf Coast are associated with this larger system that will produce wild weather and strong tornadoes this afternoon and night. Low Pressure is moving from the Plains toward the western Great Lakes and drag a Cold Front from the Mississippi River to the Eastern US by Friday afternoon. Marginal CAPEs will be overcome by strong wind shear and storms will fire today across the Ohio Valley and west-central Tennessee Valley. Where there's ample daytime heating, these storms will become strong...with damaging winds, vivid lightning and heavy rain. Hail may also be a secondary concern in these areas. Some storms will produce tornadoes capable of staying on the ground for prolonged periods (15-20 minutes or longer). Tornadic activity should continue well after dark from Michigan down to western Tennessee. There is potential for numerous Supercells along with a powerful squall line and those in the watch areas must heed advice from the NWS or reliable local media.

The threat shifts East on Friday and will weaken, however things could get interesting...particularly over the central and eastern Mid-Atlantic. Lines of storms may fire up on Friday and produce very heavy rain (especially in thunderstorms) along with strong winds. An isolated tornado is not ruled out...especially if the area heats up with some morning sunshine and dew points pump up into the 60's. Quiet and somewhat cooler weather for the weekend before above normal readings return next week.

Current National Watches and Warnings:

Real-time Info from our Severe WeatherCenter HERE.

Real-time weather from Mid-Atlantic WX.com in Lexington, VA HERE.

Regional Dew Points Map from Mid-Atlantic WX.com in Lexington, VA HERE.

Invest 99L Inland...Helps Fuel Severe Outbreak!
Wednesday, October 17

Even with the recent cavalcade of Invests, there's been very little to discuss, but that is changing over the United States!

Invest 99L moved over land this morning to the Northeast of Houston/Galveston, TX, never being classified as a Tropical Depression. Elsewhere, no other important disturbances right now over the Atlantic Basin and attention pivots inland where a multi-day storm complex is affecting the US.

Today has been the first of three days featuring strong to severe weather...a typical October Outbreak should expand on Thursday.

Current watch and warning map from our Severe WeatherCenter (click for more info)

Today's Storm Reports from our Severe WeatherCenter (click for more info)

High Pressure over the eastern US is shifting offshore and opens the gate to allow juicy tropical moisture from Invest 99L to stream inland over the northern Gulf Coast. Meanwhile, surface Low Pressure over the Central Plains is pushing a Warm Front towards the Ohio Valley/.Great Lakes...add in a fairly fast southern Jet Stream zipping over the Southern US and conditions are excellent for a prolonged outbreak of severe weather.

I've heard a report from a chaser at Oktoberfest west of Tulsa, OK has been hit with extremely strong winds and causes over 30 injuries this evening. These storms are lining up to produce a wall of wind along with some Supercells over eastern Oklahoma.

Target Zone overnight is Arkansas, Missouri, eastern Oklahoma and Mississippi, western TN and KY, where severe storms and night-time shrouded tornadoes are possible and should be expected! I have watched a couple cells on Radar this evening that have been long-lived and this could continue overnight. Hopefully, persons in these affected areas have their NOAA Weather Radios on and are prepared for any action necessary.

Surface Low moves east on Thursday and will push a potent line of storms well ahead to the east and Southeast. Strongest storms and tornadoes should generally be east of the Mississippi by early Thursday afternoon. There already is a MODERATE RISK of severe weather posted by the Storm Prediction Center for the Upper Mississippi Valley and western Ohio Valley...IL, IN, MI and W OH...click here for current graphics. If enough tropical juice pumps up ahead of the storms, strong to severe weather should continue Thursday night into the west-central Tennessee Valley and up across Ohio..this would mean a second night of tornadoes after dark.

For the Mid-Atlantic States: I am not enthused about severe weather on Friday, however, winds should begin to pick-up overnight tonight ahead of warm air streaming up from the South. There could be breaks in the low and mid level clouds early Friday; sufficient to heat up the atmosphere as the weakening storm energy arrives. Models show there may be sufficient shear (bad for tropical systems, but good for severe weather), to produce a few severe storms for central/eastern VA and north on Friday. While I am an avid storm chaser, my preference is for moderate rain as this region remains dusty and bone dry. I'll need to tune up this outlook on Thursday afternoon to see how this complex scenario may play out.

Tropical Depression Fifteen: NEXT!
Thursday, October 11

Very brief update as we're experiencing some server issues this evening. New Invest 96L formed today well Southeast of Bermuda and is now TD Fifteen. This Low Pressure area is not very potent and will undergo some hefty shear on Friday. It is on life support and not a threat to the Caribbean or the Mainland US.

Models getting a bit jumpy on former Invest 94L, now (mostly) over Central America. As noted in Tuesday's blog, there is a slight chance a piece of this expansive Low Pressure area could redevelop just off the Yucatan coast. Any development will have virtually no time to crank up and this...aside from more rain...isn't a problem.

Little curious about potential late this weekend as the wave discussed Tuesday east of the Lesser Antilles is now west of the islands and south of Puerto Rico. A trof in the vicinity of Cuba should lift out and we'll watch and see if this wave gets an opportunity to spin.

WOW! The chilly air has arrived in the Mid-Atlantic! Blustery and cool today with a low, dirty cloud deck made it look and feel like Fall. Temps below to near normal for the region through the weekend. We *really* need rain.

Tropics Simmer Down...And So Will Temps In The East.
Tuesday, October 9

Try as it will, Invest 94L has still failed to develop over the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula. Current images here. In terms of areal coverage, Invest 94L is a large...with expansive Low Pressure and this may foil the wannabe storm. Low Pressure covers both land and water making it problematic for a Tropical Depression to spin up offshore. The only real item that keeps this interesting is very little steering currents, otherwise this system would have washed inland over the weekend. Only the SHIPs and DSHP bring this to a tropical storm (as the SHIPs will do with every Low Pressure area) however it appears Invest 94L will get over land prior to any development. Still, another big rainmaker for the Yucatan: "Hurricane Home, 2007".

Elsewhere, the wave train continues north of the western/central ITCZ with one area of particular interest. Click here and you'll see a large "blob" approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands and the Caribbean. Despite a lack of computer model support right now, this should be our next Invest.

BIG changes coming to the Eastern US! Click here for our Water Vapor Loop and you'll see a couple of interesting features. First, a Cold Front is approaching the eastern US and kick out the record breaking heat and muggy humidities more common in late August than early October. Second, you'll notice a large Upper Level Low (ULL) swirling north of the Great Lakes. This storm will track to the Southeast, dragging another Cold Front into the Eastern US...quickly getting temps back to normal and even slightly below normal readings. The good news is a return to very pleasant temperatures. The bad news is after the frontal boundary passes, there is now widespread rain in the forecast. Dormant or dead grass and parched gardens in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast have very little to look forward to over the next seven to ten days.

A coastal Low should form off the Jersey Shore and track up toward the Gulf of Main this weekend...producing a near Nor'easter for the Pine Tree State (and my hometown of Portland!). Locally, temps rebound nicely early next week, but nothing to help curb the prolonged drought. Given the current synoptic pattern (even after this powerful storm zips up into the Gulf of Maine), there is nothing pointing to appreciable relief from dry conditions. Sad to say, a remnant tropical cyclone is probably the only near-term remedy and that is not a great option!

Invest Oktoberfest Continues...But With NO Immediate Threats.
And...Eastern Blowtorch Continues for Three More Days.
Saturday, October 6

Another infusion of Invests keeps things hopping here at the HurricaneCenter but there actually is little to report. Melissa has come back "unofficially" and gone away again. Invest 90L, near the Texas coast didn't organize and has come inland. Invest 95L in the Northeast Atlantic came and quickly went away. As off 11PM EDT tonight, here are the remaining players:

INVEST 94L: located in the Western Caribbean, it would *seem* likely this system languishes in the area due to weak steering currents before coming in over the Yucatan. One concern is the HWRF model that continues to serve as an outlier and tracks 94L across Cuba and into the Bahamas. The HWRF and HWRI do not organize the Invest into a Tropical Depression. Conversely, the GFDL does depict a tropical storm going into the Yucatan. Wind shear is less than 10 knots...conducive for development. Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into the area on Sunday afternoon. We should have a better handle on this by Sunday evening however, unless the HWRF has the right idea and all other models do not, this will be another Yucatan storm not threatening the US. Images here.

INVEST 93L: disturbed area to the north of Hispaniola. A large trof of Low Pressure is located in the region and any development will be slow...if at all. General model tracks are to the NW (normally a worry in this region) however another front is due next week and should anything spin up at the surface it probably gets the boot and would recurve away from Florida and the US East Coast.

INVEST 91L: is due east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. Wind shear is doing the dirty work on this system and it looks to me as though the Low Level Center (LLC) has decoupled from the convection Shear is forecast to abate and this could pull together but is forecast to eventually recurve ("fish storm"). The GFDL and HWRF models take it close to the Lesser Antilles but early hunch is the Invest will continue a general NW track and miss the islands. Might get interesting if the LLC reforms well to the south under the convection...but not thinking that will occur at this time. Invest 91L is east of the Lesser Antilles Islands: images here.

OCTOBER BLOWTORCH! The Global Warming nut jobs must be licking their chops about this current shot of heat and humidity over the Eastern US! I wonder if they notice it was in the 30's today at Salt Lake City, Utah and it's snowing in the northern Rockies? A back-door Cold Front will attempt to make southern inroads this weekend but likely stall and wash out over the Mid-Atlantic States. Perhaps some Sunday showers or storms along and north of the Potomac, but overall a late-summer Sunday coming to the region. Yes, we really do need rain!

High Pressure returns by Columbus Day, pumping in more warm and muggy air on Southwest flow...temps Sunday and Monday easily 15° above normal. By Wednesday, a storm will make tracks toward the Lakes and push cooler air and precipitation into the Mid-Atlantic. This frontal boundary will hang over the area into the weekend, bringing cloudier skies, cooler temps and maybe, just maybe, better chances for widespread rain later next week.

Invest Oktoberfest!
And..."Melissa" Is Back (Sorta)
Wednesday, October 3

Two new Invests and the unofficial return of "Melissa" made this a very busy day at the HurricaneCenter.
Here's a look at where the four Atlantic systems are located (note: this map is current as of 8PM EDT and will NOT update)

So, as Jackie Gleason would say: "and away we go!"

INVEST 90L: Gulf of Mexico system show a visible circulation today but storms continue to be unimpressive, as shown on our GOM Enhanced Satellite Loop. So long as that pesky Upper Low covers much of the Gulf, it's "so long" to Invest 90L...development will be slow, if at all. The surface reflection is broad and that makes the models jumpy...they now are shifting more to the north-central Gulf coast (LA-MS-AL), but this again may change. It is possible this landfalls as a T.D or possibly a weak tropical storm, but sudden development will not occur. Timeline remains the second half of Friday or early Saturday.

INVEST 91L: Another Tropical Depression candidate located in the Central Atlantic. This storm is about to roll into hefty wind shear that will limit or wipe out any development. All models track the storm northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands and "91L" does not appear to pose a threat at this time.

INVEST 92L: Hmmm...this is the "Sneak Attack" storm referenced in yesterday's blog. Gargantuan High Pressure Ridging will overspread the Western Atlantic and Mid-Atlantic/SEUS and this makes 92L very interesting...and...a potential threat. This system is located east of Florida near the Bahamas and continues to get organized this evening. Current Enhanced Satellite view here. Click that link and you'll see this Invest is already nicely ventilating...upper level winds are favorable for development. I don't want to over-honk, but I think this system is in the bank and will become something to closely watch. Forecast track suggested by models still calls for a WSW turn (similar to Katrina, but much further south) and int the Florida Straits. Form there...I am not sure as we don't know how much of a dent into the Ridge will be made by a Low Pressure trof that will move toward the Eastern US in several days. Should a weakness develop, this storm would have a way to turn more to the Northwest or even North...but I can't tell you how this plays out. Another option is High Pressure holds tough and the storm heads toward the Yucatan (again!). This is the feature storm, folks and one we will keep an eagle eye on over the next several days.

AL142007/Melissa: Wind shear that should take care of Invest 91 will likely do its dirty work on the return of Melissa. The NHC isn't issuing official Forecast/Advisories again, but models have resumed initializing on the system. Were the storm to hold together, it will be a bigger threat to Africa or Portugal than the US and Canada.

Invest 92L is "the show" for now!

Invest 90L Is In A Hurry...But Is "Noel" Near?
And..."Sneak Attack" Alert!
Tuesday, October 2

Storms continue to fire, albeit not as expansive tonight as earlier today over the Gulf of Mexico. Current satellite loop here from our HurricaneCenter. As mentioned yesterday, we have an Upper Low continues to spin while an area of Low Pressure at the surface has formed. The surface Low is not tightly wound up or well organized...however conditions should become more favorable on Wednesday. It appears winds are in excess of 30MPH and the NHC may "pull the trigger" on this within the next 24 hours as there's good modeling agreement the storm will shift more to the NW later this week. Once thing for sure...Invest 90L is moving west/WNW at a good clip.

Models coming together on a WNW track for another couple of days before shifting more Northwest in response to High Pressure Ridging. This consensus brings the system toward land east of Galveston, TX, west of Morgan City, LA sometime Friday. Virtually all models keep the storm either a Tropical Depression or weak tropical storm and hurricane development is extremely unlikely.

As noted, High Pressure expands later this week over the Atlantic and pushes down into the Southeastern US. This is important because some models continue to develop a storm near the Bahamas this week...and under the edge of Ridging, move a storm through the Islands, across Cuba and into the Gulf. The GFS has been persistent and some other models also are on board. This could become Invest 91L at anytime and persons across these islands and South Florida should monitor possible development.

Invest 90L off Florida...Heading Into The Gulf?
Monday, October 1

An unorganized area of Low Pressure near Florida has became Invest 90L this afternoon. The 0Z "hurricane models" fix the center at 25.2°N, 78.4°W, or WNW of Andros Island in the Bahamas. Models offer a wide spray of solutions from "nothing" to Tampa to NOLA and west to Houston...not surprising given there is no clear circulation this evening. I know folks neae NOLA are keeping an eye on the GFS as it tracks right to The Big Easy.

An Upper Level Low (ULL) currently centered over western Cuba will certainly influence potential development over the next two days. High Pressure will build in and if Invest 90L does develop, it will track generally to the West or the WNW...this does put a potential storm over the eastern GOM mid-week and could be steered around the Ridge; hence the likely initial track over the open Gulf of Mexico waters. Only the SHIPs model cranks up the storm...something the model does with every event, so we look to more reliable models for possibilities. Most keep Invest 90L at or below Tropical Depression strength as it approaches the Gulf Coast on Friday. Again, landfall is difficult to target but Mobile to Galveston will be my initial first guess.

Hurricane Hunters are still scheduled to check things out on Tuesday.

No updates last weekend here at the blog as my son and I had the opportunity to catch the Yankees play Baltimore at Camden Yards. I'm a lifelong Yanks fan so this was a fun weekend accented with perfect weather. There is something special about taking your son to a baseball game...the experience is difficult to duplicate with other professional sports. The Yankees took two of three games which made my only weekend off during hurricane season extra special.

I'll update the blog on Tuesday.

Back to the Blog