Scott's Jun 2008

Mid-Atlantic Radar

Scott's June, 2008 Blog
(blog descends chronologically)

MODERATE Risk for Severe Storms Today!
Monday, June 16

Numerous strong to severe storms expected to develop later this afternoon and tonight as a Cold Front digs southeast and crosses the region today. Behind the front, cooler and drier air will be in control for much of the work week.

SPC has much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast covered by a Slight Risk. MODERATE Risk area is roughly from WV and VA, North of I-64 to Worcester, MA. Current data below (yellow: Slight, Red: Moderate). Click graphic for more information.

This set up doesn't appear to pose much risk for tornadoes, although Supercells may develop. More likely, lines of thunderstorms will form and bow out...creating damaging winds along with very heavy rains. Plenty of cold air aloft with warmer air in the lower levels so hail may also be a factor in some of the thunderstorms.

Strong storms should organize and fire up over WV this afternoon, spreading over VA and the Metro Washington-Baltimore area around rush hour.. This evening, storms traverse NJ, NYC and southern New England. Southern VA is outlined in the Slight Risk area but certainly could see vigorous thunderstorms, lightning, wind and rain late this afternoon. Stay close to our Severe WeatherCenter for current information on this potential severe weather event.

Pattern Change is Welcomed News After An Awesome Week of Weather.
Saturday, June 14

An approaching Cold Front and pre-frontal trof crossing the Mid-Atlantic States tonight is the harbinger of changes in this active and nasty weather pattern. Numerous severe storms lit up regional Radars this afternoon and evening. Here's a SVR as it approached Nelson County, VA (photo submitted by Andy):

A strong Upper Level Low (ULL) over Canada is moving toward the Great Lakes and will bring another Cold Front over the Lakes, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic early next week. Right now, it looks as though this boundary will cross the Mid-Atlantic late Monday or in the early hours of Tuesday. Timing isn't ideal for severe weather, but lines of storms should develop on Monday over the Ohio Valley and approach the Appalachians later in the evening. Heavy rain, wind and some hail could result from the stronger storms that develop...so keep an eye on our Severe WeatherCenter on Sunday and Monday for the latest information. Models hinting the highest risk for severe weather will move east to a line roughly from Syracuse, NY to Winchester, VA...although storms could fire up again over eastern PA and down to the Delmarva.

Behind this next front, we finally catch a break! In fact, after this week's record breaking heat, it will feel downright delightfully chilly. High temps this week soared to the upper 90's with some readings exceeding the century mark...70's will be the rule next week. Wednesday through Friday could see increasing chances for small pop-up storms in the afternoon but overall, a quiet week after Monday's threat passes.

TORNADOES: This has been a terrible week of weather: heat, floods and killer tornadoes. SPC reports indicate 115 tornadoes just this week. While the actual number will be lower, the toll has been numbing even to hardened storm chasers.

Wednesday's twister in Manhattan, Iowa has been evaluated and rated as an EF-4. Interestingly, this tornado was recorded live on a local TV station as it approached the community:

The other highly publicized tornado hit the Little Sioux Scout Ranch Boy Scout camp in Western Iowa, also on Wednesday. Many of you may know I am employed by a local council of the Boy Scouts of America and so the death of four Scouts was particularly distressing to me. All loss of life is tragedy, yet this event was especially painful. The camp was not open this week and Scouts and leaders were there for what is referred to as "pre-camp" week. On Tuesday, they conducted emergency training drills and by all accounts did exactly what was required when the EF-3 approached their camp. These young men and their leaders knew exactly what to do and then took control of the horrific situation until help arrived over 40 minutes later. There's no doubt this would have been worse were it not for heroic efforts by these Scouts and leaders before, during and after the tornado. They are the epitome of what is so very special about being a Scout.

NWS report and photos from the Boy Scout camp here.

Raw AP footage of the Boy Scout camp damage:

A small tornado was tracked at Miami Beach, Florida on Friday! Story and video here.

TROPICS: Not much brewing in the Atlantic, Caribbean and GOM right now. An interesting wave has rolled off Africa but is not expected to develop.

Partly Personal: My son and I took a few days off earlier this week to make the pilgrimage to New York City and Yankee Stadium. This probably will be my final visit to the Stadium as the new ball park opens next season. We attended Monday's game (Yanks lost 3-2 to the Royals. Red Sox fans: contain yourselves!). It was ghastly hot: so hot, the team provided free cups of water. Of course, bottled water still sold for $4.50 apiece! After the game, I sat in the empting box seats and just looked over the ball park I have attended and loved for over 35 years. Very strange how attached we become to inanimate objects.

I missed a strong storm on Tuesday down here in Virginia and thank Michele for sending this photo of tree damage just north of Lexington, VA:

Happy Father's Day to all my fellow Dads!

Arthur Arrives On Hurricane Eve
Sunday, June 1

Invest 90L (remnant of Alma) became Tropical Storm Arthur and I believe this happened as the LLC was mostly over land. Unusual to say the least. High Pressure Ridging generally over the north and eastern Gulf will keep the weakening cyclone out of the Bay of Campeche. It would be interesting to see if this held together to reform over the Pacific. If so, that would make Alma and Arthur in the Pacific and Arthur in the Atlantic...three named storms and hurricane season has just begun!

As today is the "official" start of hurricane season, here's Dr. William (Bill) Gray's April forecast:

Forecast Parameter and
1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses)

7 Dec 2007
Forecast for 2008

9 April
2008

Named Storms (NS) (9.6)

Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1)

Hurricanes (H) (5.9)

Hurricane Days (HD) (24.5)

Intense Hurricanes (IH) (2.3)

Intense Hurricane Days (IHD) (5.0)

Accumulated Cyclone Engery (ACE) (96.1)

Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (100%)

13
60

7

30

3

6

115

125

15
80

8

40

4

9

150

160

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:
1) Entire U.S. coastline - 69% (average for last century is 52%)
2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 45% (average for last century is 31%)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 44% (average forecast last century is 30%)
4) Above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean.

You can read the entire report from Philip Klotzbach and William Gray by clicking HERE.

A Cold Front crossed the region this evening and was the focal point of a pretty good line of storms. As usual, the mountains did their dirty work and I never hear a rumble of thunder, but did enjoy observing the sky bubble up. Here's a picture from north of Roanoke, VA:

click to enlarge.

Upon arriving back home in Lexington, VA, still without a drop of rain, I was treated to a waning rainbow from a nearby thunderstorm:

click to enlarge.

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