Scott's May 2008

Mid-Atlantic Radar

Scott's May, 2008 Blog
(blog descends chronologically)

Hurricane Model Maps Now Available...Just In Time For
INVEST 90L...The Atlantic Basin's First System of 2008!

Plus...Historic Tornado Season Continues!
Friday, May 30

INVEST 90L: It's not "officially" hurricane season but we've already had our first named storm (Alma) in the Eastern Pacific and now have Invest 90L in the Atlantic Basin. In actuality, this is a Caribbean/Yucatan storm that has formed from energy of dissipating Alma. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kts with a developing LLC (low level center)...making this close to a Tropical Depression. However, proximity to the Yucatan Peninsula makes immediate development unlikely. We'll continue to monitor as the circulation could survive intact and emerge over the lower Bay of Campeche. I'm not bullish on this but certainly worth watching.

MODEL MAPS NOW AVAILABLE: Our world famous hurricane model maps are now up and running a couple day before the June 1st start of hurricane season. Bigger maps and a lower subscription price make our models affordable for anyone interested in tropical cyclones. And, our popular text messaging service returns in 2008: get new storm alerts delivered right to your cell phone! For model map information or to subscribe, please click HERE.

TORNADOES: There have been an astounding 132 tornado reports from last Sunday through tonight! Last Sunday produced 53 and Thursday's total exceeded 60. 2008 is on pace to break records for the total number of reported tornadoes...with several hitting or approaching major cities such as Atlanta and Norfolk. The severe threat moves east on Saturday...with Delmarva though NJ bearing the brunt of strong storms. Supercells are possible and therefore there is potential for tornadoes in the Mid-Atlantic. Straight-line winds and possibly hail are also threats, particularly late afternoon. Visit our Severe WeatherCenter for real time information.

Partly Personal: You may have noticed blogging has been scarce for the past several weeks. Part of the reason is this has been an amazingly tranquil Spring for most of the East. The main reason, however, has been my dealing with a rather serious family health issue. Time that would have been spent blogging here at Mid-Atlantic WX.com has been devoted to dealing with this ongoing period of uncertainty. We are encouraged by progress over the past several days and I hope for the best...as well as having some time to get back to the blog. As we've seen with Alma and Invest 90L, hurricane season appears eager to quickly get out of the gate. Thank you to those of you who have written to inquire on my decreased writing here at the blog. I hope to have an update on the tropics on Sunday morning.

Current Tornado Outbreak Death Toll: 23 At Least.
Sunday, May 11

I recall several years ago devoting Mother's Day to chasing in a Moderate Risk box over NOVA and MD. I never saw anything close to severe that day however Mother's Day 2008 has been far less kind. No fatalities in today's storm reports, however the past several days have produced a terrible outbreak. I dislike speculating on tornado strength but the video observed from the Picher, OK tornado appears massive and an EF-5 tornado is not ruled out by this author. Tornadoes and related fatalities certainly will well exceed last year's totals and we have half of May and all of June before "spring season" winds down.

As this is typed, I see a confirmed tornado has just touched down in Lewiston, NC, injuring two people.

Here's one of the most amazing tornado video captures I've ever seen! This is a looped clip from a surveillance camera in Leighton, AL actually showing the base of a tornado passing directly in front. Watch what happens to the vehicles. This tornado occurred last Thursday and was rated as an EF-2. The vehicles were not hit directly by this "small" tornado yet you can see they were tossed at least 40 feet! This video should remind everyone to never be in a vehicle as a tornado approaches!!!

A very potent line of storms is crossing the Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon as Low Pressure begins spinning up off the Delmarva Peninsula. An Upper Level Low (ULL) over the Ohio Valley will move East tonight and while the active weather of this afternoon's Tornado Watch area will wane, we could see storms fire up in the dry slot between these two Lows. Cloud cover and loss of what little daytime heating there has been today should keep advancing weather from becoming severe, but thunderstorms with some hail can't be ruled out tonight.

As the Upper Low passes, High Pressure builds in and the tight pressure gradient will produce gusty to strong winds late tonight and into Monday over the region.

Another batch of severe weather should develop Wednesday into Thursday for Texas, tornado alley and possibly the north-central Gulf States as the next Cold Front moves east. This frontal boundary arrives in the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday and should deliver more scattered strong storms to the area. We'll keep precipitation in the forecast into the weekend as a nasty trof of Low Pressure parks over the Eastern US...with several lobes of energy trigger drizzle/rain and some scattered storms. A very active pattern indeed.

MY WEDNESDAY MINI-CHASE:

Last Wednesday night I was in Waynesboro (Augusta), VA when a Tornado Watch was issued. A strong storm headed toward Nelson County and that's where my chasing began. Exiting at Afton Mountain, I was quickly able to observe numerous downed trees. Not far away, a car was on its side, apparently by straight line winds. Another cell was moving into Augusta County, so I headed that way and was able to get on decent picture before the rain began:

The Augusta County storm was severe but I couldn't get under it due to topography. A Tornado Warning was issued shortly after this storm raced Northeast over the Augusta/Rockingham County line. Again, the mountains cut short a promising night for me. The cell dumped nearly one inch hail at Charlottesville and was part of the system that later produced an EF-2 tornado in Stafford County, VA. My chaser buddies out west smirk when told we lose a rotating thunderstorm literally in minutes because of terrain and rural curvy roads. They think nothing of chasing a storm for 100 miles...here in the east, a quarter of that is good.

Several guys I chat with post on an excellent forum at StormTrack.org. If you'd like to read chaser reports and logs of this week's tornado outbreak click here.

Back to the Blog