Scott's May 2006 Blog

Mid-Atlantic Radar

Scott's May, 2006 Blog

Hurricane Model Maps Now Available.
Saturday, May 27, 2006

Well, it doesn't seem all that long ago I was doing model maps and here we are again ready for the new season. Considering the last map I did was on January 6th of this year, it really wasn't all that long ago! But, it is time to focus on the upcoming season and that means our world famous hurricane model maps are up and running.

If you're interested in subscription information, it is available at this link:
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm
Sign up before June 4th and it's a measly 20 bucks...after the 4th a full year's rate is only 24 dollars (still a great value considering all you get).

Even if you don't subscribe to our Premium Service Weather hurricane maps, I hope you'll bookmark our HurricaneCenter and depend upon us to bring you unrivaled coverage all season. Visit our Storm Preparedness pages as you develop your own plans for dealing with storm's this year.

Time to go and fire up the grill as I have in-laws visiting from New York and I'm the Grillmeister around here. Maybe it is a guy thing, but no one touches my grill or utensils. I hope you have a chance to enjoy some nice weather and a cookout this Memorial Day weekend. And, as always, thanks for visiting Mid-Atlantic WX.com.

Above Normal Season Predicted by the Hurricane Center.
Monday, May 22, 2006

The National Hurricane Center today released their May, 2006 prediction for the upcoming hurricane season: "very active", but with fewer storms than in 2005. If you are interested in reading their summary, click here:
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2634.htm

Overall, I am in good agreement with their assessment. While NHC is vague in "predicting" 13 to 16 named storms (that's akin to predicting it will rain sometime in the next week), the science behind their analysis is good. I am in the forecasting business, not the predicting business but do think we will see 16 or more named storms this year.

Of greater import is where storms may threaten this year. I am not alone in watching a weather pattern evolve that may put the Caribbean and the US East Coast in harm's way. Texas may also be under the gun as storms developing or steered into the Gulf of Mexico may track more to the west than in 2005.

On a separate note, this is another brief post as I still feel rotten. I've been sick for about two weeks and this is now getting old. I was away from the office for five of six days last week, so that probably didn't help much, either. Sunday was a cool, windy day but the weather was clear so I worked in my neglected yard for several hours and now am sneezing all over again. No one will come near me, so I not only am sick, I'm lonely!!! Oh well, hurricane season begins in ten days so I have plenty of work to do while blowing my nose and taking meds.

Selected Pages at the Web Site Now en Español!
Friday, May 19, 2006

In anticipation of the upcoming hurricane season I am pleased to announce Mid-Atlantic WX.com will now offer several pages in English AND Spanish. A substantial number of the site's visitors seeking tropical weather information are located in predominately Spanish speaking areas. We'll start off with a few translated pages and add more as hurricane season gets underway.

Pages available in Spanish are easy to spot...just look for this link at the bottom of the page:
This Page en Español.

Click here for a listing of all pages offered with a Spanish translation link.

Mid-Atlantic WX.com remains committed to offering the widest and best selection of information on the Internet. ¡Gracias!

Quick Thursday Comments.
Thursday, May 18, 2006

Back in the office for a day but still sick. This has been the "Mutha" of all colds.

Severe weather possible across Mid-Atlantic tonight as a Cold Front pushes across the region. Very cold air aloft (hello...Al Gore?) and that could enhance hail in any severe storms that do form. Behind the Front, cooler air and below normal temperatures continue into next week (Al Gore: are you listening???)

Hurricane model map subscriptions will begin next week. Still tweaking everything and will have several nice new interactive enhancements. Information at: http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm.

Out of the office on Friday and Saturday morning and I'll try to post over the weekend.

Mother's Day and the Weather is a "Mutha".
Sunday, May 14, 2006

I don't want anyone offended by the word "mutha". I know in Philly or Brooklyn that can be used in a derogatory manner, but I moved here from Maine and that is how mother is pronounced. For example, in Portland (correct pronunciation is "Potlin") we might say: "Yes, Mutha, I'd love some chowda".

We are in a mutha of a weather pattern. Blocking High, cutoff Lows and now a big risk of serious flooding from Portland to Providence. Tremendous rain totals piling up in that area as a narrow stripe of moisture continues to come in off the chilly Atlantic. Our current menace is a closed Low spinning over the Ohio Valley which will creep eastward over the next couple of days. Clouds, drizzle and rain will hang tough in the forecast for several more days.

Bands of thunderstorms will spiral across the southeast and Mid-Atlantic today bringing the threat of strong to severe storms from Virginia down through the Carolinas. These Upper Lows sometimes look like remnant hurricanes on RADAR in that you see a well defined center of circulation with convective bands rotating counter clock-wise on the eastern side of the center. If these bands organize with the help of some sunshine we'll have a fair severe weather event late this afternoon. Cold air aloft will enhance the risk of hail in any Supercells that may develop with tornadoes a threat.

That's about all I have for today as I've developed a world class cold :( and feel miserable. Getting a bad cold when you already have nasty allergies is cruel and unusual punishment. I will be out of the office until Wednesday night, attending a conference near Richmond (where the weather will be equally obnoxious).
Until then, I hope you have a good week!

UPDATE @ 3pm: Severe wx now increasing! TOR warnings near Caroline County, VA with several over central NC. Counted 15 severe tstorm warnings this aft for VA/NC. Just received a report of 1" of hail on the ground near Rowan County, NC! "Black wall" now approaching my location. Storms have vivid lightning and a history of hail, especially in NC. Chase gear in the Santa Fe ready to go. Will post again as conditions develop.

UPDATE @ 11:25pm: Only remaining Tornado Watch is along NC OB and SC coast...no warnings at this time and the watch expires at Midnight. HAMMER TIME in the Tarheel State today with numerous tornado reports yet to be verified.

Big weather concern remains in New England where locations mentioned above will likely receive over 12+ inches of rain! A dangerous, widespread flooding event will begin in earnest Monday. The following comes Sunday evening from the NWS office in Taunton (Boston), MA:

MAJOR FLOODING AND IN SOME CASES...RECORD FLOODING...IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ON SEVERAL RIVERS IN NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH VERY SLOW RECESSIONS ANTICIPATED AFTER THE CRESTS EARLY THIS COMING WEEK.

THE SECOND WORST FLOODING OF RECORD IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ON THE MERRIMACK AT LOWELL...DATING BACK TO AN EVENT PRIOR TO THE HURRICANE OF 38.

ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MERRIMACK...FLOODING WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY...MAY 19TH.

This will resemble Katrina-like flooding and be all over TV. Since last hurricane season FEMA and the Red Cross have talked the talk...interesting to see if they can walk the walk up in New England. Even after the Hurricane Conference, I am damn skeptical much has changed where the rubber meets the road. I remain Ye of Little Faith.

Keep the folks in harm's way up north in your thoughts. Well, my cold is getting the best of me. I need more meds and a nice warm bed. I'll be back Wednesday night; till then...Achoo!...have a good week.

The Katrina Clause.
Thursday, May 11, 2006

Yesterday, I rented a truck and was going through all the usual paperwork formalities when the agent said something that surprised me. While explaining all the places you need to approve by signing your initials, one was agreeing to not drive the truck into a hurricane zone. I told him I'm just moving some stuff locally, but he said it needs to be signed. Upon asking him why, he said: "that there's the Katrina clause".
As the story goes, many people hurriedly rented trucks to evacuate personal items ahead of Katrina's landfall path. Many of these trucks did not make it out of the storm surge or New Orleans flooding and were destroyed. He went on to add in the storm's aftermath hundreds of truck rentals were rendered unusable by people pulling damaged belongings out of areas that sustained flooding. Apparently, furniture and boxes of soaked clothes leave an indelible odor in trucks after sitting for days in a hot and humid environment. Now, when one rents a truck, one agrees not to drive into a hurricane. That's the "Katrina clause".

I continue to marvel how this storm and others from 2005 and back to 2004 continue to change our lives.
Here we are three weeks before the "official" start of hurricane season and consider how many people still have a Blue Roof. A Blue Roof is one of those free FEMA blue tarps put on damaged roofs. Well, free to the homeowner but about $2,500 per home for the taxpayers...the average job by the way actually costs around $1,300 but that's FEMA! How many homes remain in this condition? No one knows but reasonable approximations just from Katrina are in the vicinity of 70,000 homes. Estimates in Miami-Dade alone are around 16,000. For a picture of a "blue neighborhood in Jefferson Parrish, LA click HERE.

Katrina again reminds us to count our blessings. I get ticked off when dandelions pop up after I spray them with that smelly weed killer stuff. These folks kiss their kids goodnight under a plastic tarp hoping it won't blow away before a new roof is constructed. Certainly does put things into proper perspective, doesn't it?

Check our Severe StormCenter as we have the threat of an impressive squall line crossing the Mid-Atlantic later Thursday. Think you'll likely see more than a couple Supercells in the region and an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. After that, unsettled and below normal weather hangs tough over the entire region.

Oh, I'm out of town next Monday through Wednesday but will try to post here between now and then.
Till then...keep an eye on the sky!

Cut Out The Cutoff Low.
Tuesday, May 9, 2006

I watch very little television...just don't have time for it. But, "House" is must-see TV in my place. Tonight's episode was extremely depressing. This, coupled with my beloved New York Yankees getting spanked this evening by the hated Rex Sox only adds to my sense of forlornness. The last couple of days I have been down; my youngest daughter tells me I am in a Blue Funk.

Since I am generally a very happy person (albeit rather tightly wrapped), I must find the cause of my melancholy. It is the nasty Cutoff Low hanging around off the coast of New England. These "cutoffs" as we call them really suck. The villains of bad weather earn their name because they separate from the prevailing west to east winds...they are cutoff from the Jet Stream. As a result, the counter clockwise wind circulation (found in all Low pressure areas in the Northern Hemisphere) just sits and spins with nothing to move it along the Jet Stream. Such is the case over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic US. An area of Low Pressure is adrift Southeast of Cape Cod and it will continue pushing chilly damp wind out of the Northeast; remember, nothing good ever blows in on an east wind. Several disturbances will cross the Mid-Atlantic to reinforce periods of gloomy low clouds and rain/drizzle. In between these bouts of moisture, the sun will pop out above partly cloudy skies.

It gets even worse as another storm approaches the Great Lakes and the pesky Cutoff Low actually retrogrades (moves west...closer to the coast). This sets the stage for an extended period of unsettled, cool, rainy weather, especially in the Northeast.

These Cutoff Lows are the just plain nasty weather features. If would be one thing if moisture starved areas all benefited from the bleak weather, but significant rains will be limited to north of the Mason-Dixon Line. And with nothing to kick it along, a Cutoff Low can hang around for several days. This must be the reason I'm listening to only the sad songs on my featured album this week: "Open Up and Say...Ahh!" by Poison.

One good thing about this lousy weather pattern: every time I start the lawn mower, it rains!

I'm Smart...and I Can Prove It!
Plus Some Upcoming Weekend Musings
Friday, May 5, 2006

For years...no...actually decades, I've been telling people how sharp a guy I am. I can't understand why it seems no one believes me! Well, today I offer proof positive that I am one smart dude. I have it on paper; in fact it was published this week in Newsweek!

Now, let me explain before you think me totally full of myself (and other things), by the way, many people DO seem to believe that. Prior to going off to Ithaca College, in Ithaca, New York, I attended Pittsford Sutherland High School, also in New York. My growing hometown in the Autumn of 1972 opened a second high school named Pittsford-Mendon. In 1973, the schools held a joint high school graduation and I was in that class.

The May 1, 2006 Newsweek cover story reports on America's top high schools. I was curious to see where the great schools are located and glanced down the list. And it was there I found the proof that heretofore has eluded me. Number 58 on the list: Pittsford-Mendon High School. A moment later, I experienced Shock and Awe when coming in at number 61 was...you guessed it...Pittsford Sutherland High School. I can barely contain myself. Both high schools I attended are in the Top 100 schools in America. And I am in the only class that graduated from both these pillars of academic excellence. If that doesn't prove I'm a smarty pants, what will?

Never mind the fact that I did graduate from high school thirty-three years ago. Or, I haven't been there in over twenty years. My high schools are gloating right there in Newsweek; next to stories about Paris Hilton, Rush Limbaugh, Hillary, Zacarias Moussaoui and Al Gore again imploding about global warming.

If you'd like to see the article, I've linked it here: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12532678/site/newsweek/

In other news (probably not being reported in Newsweek), I will be away this weekend. I'm attending a Boy Scout Camporee and will teach a Weather Merit Badge course. Kids want to talk about two things: Katrina and tornadoes. The opportunity to discuss these and other weather topics is something I am thrilled to do. Surely, I was asked because I attended two top high schools...but then the truth was revealed to me. Weather has become such a point of interest with Boy Scouts that it became necessary to add a second class. It seems I am teaching the overflow because Robin Reed, Chief Meteorologist from WDBJ-TV in Roanoke is teaching the big class and will be the real star of the day. Oh well, I guess I need to start telling everyone how smart I am all over again ;)

Have a great weekend!

Unusual "Shelter In Place" Warning Issued in West Virginia
Thursday, May 4, 2006

A (thankfully) rare Shelter in Place warning is in effect for part of the Charleston, WV area. The apparent cause is a fire in a Nitro, WV warehouse, igniting plastic sheeting and thousands of old tires, pouring dense smoke into the area. Here is the warning from the NWS Office in Charleston:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SHELTER IN PLACE WARNING
KANAWHA METRO
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1025 PM EDT THU MAY 4 2006

...SHELTER IN PLACE WARNING...

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF KANAWHA
METRO.  THE SHELTER IN PLACE CONTINUES.

IN NITRO...DUE TO A LARGE FIRE...ALL PERSONS BETWEEN 4TH STREET AND
40TH STREET ARE ASKED TO SHELTER IN PLACE. IN ST. ALBANS...ALL
PERSONS BETWEEN 2ND STREET AND ORDINANCE PARK ARE ALSO ASKED TO
SHELTER IN PLACE...UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

IF YOU ARE UNABLE TO EFFICIENTLY SHELTER IN PLACE...AN EVACUATION
SHELTER HAS BEEN SETUP AT THE TWIN CITY BIBLE CENTER IN NITRO. THE
TWIN CITY BIBLE CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE 100 BLOCK OF FIRST AVENUE
SOUTH. ROUTE 25 IS SHUT DOWN AND PEOPLE ARE ASKED TO AVOID THIS
AREA.

IF YOU FEEL YOU ARE EXPERIENCING ANY HEALTH PROBLEMS RELATED
TO THIS INCIDENT...PLEASE CALL 911 IMMEDIATELY.

What is a Shelter in Place warning and what should you do? The public is recommended to shelter in place (go inside, close doors and windows, turn off air conditioning or heating systems, and turn on the radio or TV for more information). An example is the release of hazardous materials where toxic fumes or radioactivity may affect designated areas. The Center for Disease Control has a site that gives information about this type of health threat: http://www.redcross.org/preparedness/cdc_english/sheltering.asp

Ooops! Dropped By The "Good Hands" People?
Tuesday, May 2, 2006

The answer is "yes" if you live near the coast...or live near a future earthquake. Interesting story on on homeowners and automobile insurance from the Washington Post: "...Allstate Corp., the industry's second-largest company, has ceased writing homeowners policies in Louisiana, Florida and coastal parts of Texas and New York state. The firm has stopped underwriting earthquake coverage in California and elsewhere. Other firms have pulled back from the Gulf Coast to Cape Cod, notifying Florida of plans to cancel 500,000 policies.

Full story here:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/29/AR2006042901364.html

One needn't have an ocean view to summarily be cancelled. I know several families here in Virginia who sustained flood damage from Hurricane Isabel in 2003. Insurers refused to pay, stating damages came from rising water and therefore not covered by homeowners' insurance. Then, the policies were cancelled altogether.

The sad truth is insurance companies are not there to be neighborly; they (like all businesses) exist to make a profit. Quoting again from the Washington Post story: "Our obligation is to earn a return for our shareholders, not to assume risks from people for a price that is not fair and adequate," said Thomas J. Wilson II, (Allstate) president and chief operating officer." I think the translation is everyone should expect much higher premiums while anticipating any additional catastrophic losses will be paid for by the US government. I guess that means you will pay more, two times.

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