Scott's Mar 2007

Mid-Atlantic Radar

Scott's March, 2007 Blog
(blog descends chronologically)

Soggy Saturday & Sunday for Some...And...
Frost on the Easter Bonnet?
Saturday, March 31

The large storm system responsible for over 80 tornado reports and several fatalities is slowly moving from the Plains toward the Western Great Lakes and will have lower effects on the Mid-Atlantic area this weekend. The storm's track will pull warm moisture from the Gulf up into the Central US...well west of the Mid-Atlantic. However, a band of showers is lifting from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into NC and the Virginias today and will keep skies cloudy with spotty showers. Looks like this morning's 12 hour RUC (Rapid Update Cycle) model keeps most of the precip west of the Blue Ridge and along the VA/NC border today. Thinking now is more widespread showers and rain cross the region after 6PM tonight. Can't rule out a rumble or two of thunder with some isolated storms but nothing severe will develop in the region tonight or Sunday.
On Monday, temps rebound nicely except near the coast where an on shore flow develops in response to High Pressure over Ontario sliding to the East. Most of the region will see upper 60's to mid 70's for daily high temperatures Monday through Wednesday...but...things change in a big way as we approach the upcoming holiday Easter weekend.

One more pattern change before Spring finally takes hold means another blast of Arctic (yes, Arctic!) air is coming. A strong Cold Front will cross the Eastern US late Wednesday and with the Polar Jet Stream buckling down over the Lakes and Eastern US the door is open for much colder air pouring down all the way to North Carolina! NOT good news for all the lovely flowering trees now in bloom or agricultural interests in the region. The cold will hold for several days...perhaps a week...before the Jet Stream retreats and warmer air lifts back into the region. Adding insult to injury, a Clipper could produce Great Lakes/Northeast snowfall shortly after Easter. This coming cold shot could last from April 5 through the 12th so we are not done with winter just yet!

Next update here on the blog will be Tuesday. Have a great weekend!

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
Wednesday, March 28

Convective storms firing up across WV/VA/NC and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect into this evening for portions of southern VA and northern NC. Five Severe Thunderstorm WARNINGS on our web site as this is typed. Three-quarter inch hail reported from one storm near Catawba (Botetourt), north of Roanoke in west central Virginia. Keep an eye on our Severe WeatherCenter for the latest. While there, click our real-time severe map pop-up with current info.

Any additional updates today will be on our new news feed.

Coming Clipper "Custer's Last Stand" For Winter?
And...A Tropical Storm???
Monday, March 19

An Alberta Clipper type storm is bringing an array of snow, wintry precip and rain to the Central and Eastern Lakes today. The storm will drag a Cold Front across eastern half of the US with precipitation along the boundary. Upstate New York and northern New England will see another shot of snow showers overnight and Tuesday morning. The boundary stalls out over the Mid-Atlantic and Tennessee Valley so drizzle, showers and rain are likely Tuesday evening into Wednesday. A little frozen precip can't be ruled out near and west of the Blue Ridge (VA/WV) overnight Tuesday or early Wednesday. If you look at the Clipper link above you'll see High Pressure building in behind the storm. Clockwise flow will tumble temps on Wednesday across the Lakes, Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern US; the first full day of Spring. Ouch! Highs will be at least 15 degrees below normal.

But, all bad things must come to an end (yes, I dislike winter) and the High will migrate east setting up a much milder return flow from the southwest later this week. The Northern Jet Stream that has buckled down over the Eastern US will relax and retreat to Canada, setting up a split flow regime later in the week. Warmer air progresses northward and temperatures will soar above normal by the weekend. While not a death blow to winter, the pattern is beginning to change. We'll watch another storm in the west to see if this brings another batch of modified cold air to the Northern US while pulling in moisture from the Gulf. Such a scenario would bring a Cold Front across the Central US (rain and storms) with precip working into the Mid-Atlantic later next weekend.

It probably comes as no surprise to you that I look at models for tropical activity year round. So, I share with you this graphic:

That is a tropical storm crossing the Bahamas and approaching South Florida next Saturday! This was cooked up late last week and over the weekend by the Canadian model (CMC) but not to worry as today it is projecting much weaker Low Pressure near Bermuda, so no need to board up the windows in Florida! It's not that a tropical cyclone in March is impossible...it could happen were it not for strong wind shear. We don't need a "pre-season" named storm because this would be more fodder for Al Gore and the Global Warming Extremists. Have you noticed they've been beating the GW drum about last December's warmth, yet neglect to consider how cold it has been since mid-January? Oh well.

Speaking of tropical storms and hurricanes...did you hear last week the Army Corps of Engineers publicly stated the pumps installed in New Orleans after Katrina were not fully functional for the 2006 hurricane season? We ranted ad nausea about this last summer on the blog but it is encouraging to hear the admission. I think the Corps did the best they could post-Katrina; the fault IMO is higher up in the Federal government. Sufficient oversight and awareness now exists to bolster the hope both the levees and the pumping stations will be repaired by this summer.

No blogs this Wednesday through Sunday afternoon as I'll be on the road and unable to post. Any breaking news will appear on our RSS news feed.

Friday-Saturday Storm Update #2.
Friday, March 16

As highlighted in yesterday's blog, the Cold Front has stalled and is now stationary over North Carolina. Moderate to heavy rain continues along and north of the boundary...approaching two inches at our wx station...where Flood Watches continue though this afternoon for much of west central and Southside VA. Numerous Flood WARNINGS in effect (Staunton-Charlottesville, VA, Washington and Baltimore metro areas) where an additional two inches of rain may trigger urban, small stream and creek flooding tonight. Philly will be mostly rain but more wet snow and perhaps sleet falls in the northwestern suburbs. Not a fun drive home this afternoon.

Here's the forecast for additional liquid precipitation through 8AM Saturday (click map for more graphics):

Big Dog snow totals north of the Mason-Dixon Line! A foot or more expected from Scranton-Binghamton through the Catskills into interior northern New England as a result of the Nor'easter really cranking up near the coast. Pennsylvania (except extreme SE) is all snow with widespread six to twelve inch totals! I-95 corridor from Philly to Boston will have some accumulation but enough warm air gets in to keep it mostly liquid. I-81 will see progressively more and heavier snow from New Market, VA into Upstate NY.

As Low Pressure tracks across the Southeastern US before cranking up there could be strong thunderstorms over the Southeastern US...in fact...there's ample instability across the coastal Carolinas and an isolated tornado or two may develop later this afternoon.

I found this interesting site in the driving rain early this morning at a parking lot:

I moved here from Portland, Maine and can spot a seagull a mile away but was a little surprised at seeing this pair strolling around in the rain (fuzzy picture because the lens was pelted by rain and I'm not a good photographer). Actually, these are adult Herring Gulls that never have seen the ocean. Being about 150 miles inland, "seagulls" sometimes are spotted in parking lots doing what they do at the shore: picking though trash and making a mess! I grew up detesting these flying garbage scows, but will confess getting homesick every time I spot them this far inland. Last summer, I heard the distinctive (and annoying) caw-caw sound coming from some Herring gulls. Next thing I knew I was inside cooking up some New England Clam Chowder (pronounced: chowda). While I love New York City, I never eat the Manhattan variety as it is the wrong color and tastes terrible to someone from Maine!

Next blog will be Sunday morning.

Nifty Nor'easter Up North...
Colder, Wetter and Maybe Noisier For The Mid-Atlantic.
Thursday, March 15

You know it is March when you see see Flood Watches adjacent to Winter Storm Warnings!

A Cold Front currently draped across the Ohio Valley, PA and Upstate NY is the dividing line between winter's return and "spring break". Add to this a storm coming up from the south and an impressive late season Nor'easter is on tap for the Northeast Friday morning into early Saturday. The exact track of this pending system isn't firm and slight changes could mean much more...or less.. snowfall for the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic. I'll need to tune up the totals with another blog this evening but right now it looks to be a wintry mix for SE PA (Philly Metro) and much of NJ with snow for central-eastern PA, most of NYS and New England. Inland along the Catskills into the northern mountains of New England could see significant totals exceeding 12-15 inches! Coastal areas of the Northeast could see snow change to rain ass warmer air spins in and the precipitation could be very heavy, prompting Flood Watches.

Heading south, I can't discount the possibility of wet snow or some sleet for the Washington-Baltimore area but south of here, all rain (with the exception of the north-central WV mountains where some snow/sleet may occur). Not much chance for severe weather although some thunderstorms may rumble across WV and western Virginia this evening. The big concern locally will be how much rain falls when the frontal boundary stalls out near North Carolina. The Mid-Atlantic could see copious totals exceeding 1.5 inches of rain; sufficient to trigger some stream and urban flooding later Friday and Friday night.

Behind the departing Nor'easter, wrap around flurries/light snow may fly over the mountains and winds will quickly increase...gusting to 40-45MPH. The other feature of this system is cold air; temps Friday through Sunday will be 15 degrees below normal and over 30 degrees colder than the previous two days!

I'll look over the 00Z models and have an update this evening after 10PM. Have a good day.

UPDATE 10:10PM: Aye Carumba! Amazing temp differences today as the lazy Cold Front approaches. Even at this late hour, check out our exclusive Mid-Atlantic temperate map: 36° in Morgantown, WV to 70° outside of Charlotte, NC!

Rain has continued to overspread the Mid-Atlantic this evening. In fact, my location was treated to several extremely loud thunder rumbles and several minutes of mostly cloud-to-cloud lightning. I particularly like C-C lightning as it often produces thunder that gets LOUDER the longer it rumbles. Fun!

Anyway, first Cold Front currently hangs across the Tennessee Valley and central Virginia while the next front roughly is along a line from Chicago to Binghamton to Bangor. This second boundary will advance and the really cold air comes in behind it Friday and this weekend. Low Pressure coming up across the southeast will crank up and become a real Nor'easter this weekend. Not much to change in the snow/rain ideas presented earlier today. Models seem to be in general agreement on a track the should produce snow totals in excess of 10 inches from NE PA through eastern NYS (much less for Metro NYC region) and up into interior New England. There's always a chance the track shifts and pushes in more rain to the east, but this looks in the bank for heavy snow accumulation in the areas listed. Click HERE for heavy snow forecast maps.

Flood Watches now up for much of Virginia, the Delmarva and New Jersey as widespread rain totals exceeding 1.25 inches expected in these areas. Fairly strong scattered storms should develop on Friday over the Carolinas and north central Florida, while Flood Watch areas outlined above will receive steady rain with periods of heavy rainfall into Friday afternoon. Can't rule out a chance for changeover to light snow as wrap around precipitation kicks into northern WV and the Shenandoah Valley and Alleghany Highlands north of Harrisonburg, VA. Winds will quickly increase on Friday behind the departing storm and a wind advisory may be needed for the mountains.

North of the Potomac River I'd be getting ready to shovel some significant snow accumulation!

Another warm up is on the way later next week so we'll see if this atrocious snowstorm leads to flooding problems across PA and the Northeast.

Quick discussion on Friday morning to keep things current with this event.

By George, A Major Hurricane Down Under.
And...Warmer Weather On The Way.
Thursday, March 8

Tropical Cyclone George, a "severe Category 4" hurricane is bearing down on Western Australia. The cyclone is coming inland with winds of 110 knots which would be a "Cat-3" however minimum central pressure was reported to be 910 hectopascals (millibars)...quite low for a Category 3 cyclone. As a rule, <920 millibars is a Category 5 tropical cyclone. Visit the Australian Bureau of Meteorology here: http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone

Budding La Nina in the Pacific this year will make for an interesting Atlantic Basin hurricane season in 2007.

Closer to home in the Mid-Atlantic, High Pressure over Eastern Canada is pumping in coolish air from the North and Northeast today, so temps will remain below normal for the area as well as the Northeast. The High will move east, setting up return flow and much of the region will soar to *above* normal temps this weekend into early next week :) A weekend Cold Front will drop from the Northwest early Sunday but stall out north of Virginia; this feature will keep cooer temps to the north while bringing at least one shot for showers and rain on Sunday...and slight chances for rain showers into early next week. At this time, I'd expect no frozen precipitation south of the Mason-Dixon Line from this frontal boundary.

Partly Personal: It's been tough to get time for blogging this week as we continue assisting and visiting the family of our close friend involved in a serious vehicle accident on Interstate 81 (see 2/22/07 blog). She is making some small progress and can briefly communicate with visitors, but this is going to be a very long road to recovery. These folks are dear friends and blogging probably will be reduced, especially in the absence of severe weather in the region. Thanks again to those who have sent well wishes and kind comments as they are most appreciated.

Lunar Eclipse Tonight, Storm Aftermath & Cold Again Next Week.
Saturday, March 3

Eclipse: Much of the Mid-Atlantic area will be under partly cloudy skies tonight but much of the Lunar Eclipse should be visible. While the Eclipse will be underway when the Moon rises in this region, it will come up with a very cool reddish hue. Look to the East at sunset and enjoy the show roughly though 9PM tonight. Remember...while it is dangerous to observe a Solar Eclipse with the naked eye, you can sit back and watch the Moon tonight without worry as the Moon merely reflects sunlight toward the Earth. Keep looking up!

Outbreak: Preliminary information from this week's storm is 66 tornadoes, 20 fatalities, 160 injuries. Like Katrina, this tornado outbreak will spark a debate on how Americans plan and prepare for natural disasters. Unlike Katrina, I believe decisions made regarding Enterprise High School were correct. This makes the loss of life even more tragic because keeping people well inside a large, sturdy building is always the right decision with tornadoes. You can do everything right and still have a bad outcome. The Storm Prediction Center and the National Weather Service are also to be commended on their excellent performance during this tornado outbreak. I am a storm chaser who lives for bad weather...I also have three kids and professionally work with youth. All loss of life is saddening, but at a high school and then a hospital; it tears ones heart out. Severe weather is exciting but chasing is a tool to inform the public of approaching severity and so we continue to do it hoping others may be spared in the future.

Enterprise High School parking lot shortly after the tornado:

A student at the school recorded this video on a cell phone as the tornado approached:

Amateur video sent to the Fox TV station in Birmingham, AL is HERE

The final slap from this storm will be a fresh batch of arctic air blasting the Lakes and Northeast. While temps across the region are normal to slightly above this weekend, the arctic air will cross the Great Lakes late Monday and tumble temps in the Northeast as well as the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast Tuesday into Thursday. Warmer air will then advance ahead of another storm as we approach next weekend.

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK UNDERWAY!
Thursday, March 1

12:00 NOON. Expansive area currently under Tornado Watches (click for Severe WeatherCenter):

Overnight, the storm produced at least one fatality and is cranking up today to produce a rare large HIGH RISK area from the Storm Prediction Center. Highest risk areas at this time are from Mississippi over to nearly coastal Georgia and includes Northern Florida.

Track where severe weather is being reported with this map:

Severe thunderstorms and strong tornadoes are possible in and near Tornado Watch boxes and extreme caution is urged if outdoors today within these areas. This system will not produce widespread severe weather across the Mid-Atlantic States however rain...possibly heavy at times...will fall across the region into early Friday morning. Flooding remains a worry on Friday as thunderstorms with one to three inches of rain combined with snow and ice melt may trigger creek, stream and urban flooding.

Snow and mixed precip north of the PA Turnpike...check local forecasts and visit our Winter StormCenter for current info.

Please check our RSS news feed for updates today.

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