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Tropics Begin Bubbling...And...Bertha's Possible Threat.
Friday, July 4

I've been out at our local Boy Scout camp but have been able to keep an eye on all developments this week. Yesterday saw five systems: 3 in the Eastern Pacific and two in the Atlantic Basin. In the EPAC, all named storms (Boris, Christina and Douglas) have had the final Forecast/Advisory issued. Invest 97E is weak and disorganized, so any development is unlikely and would be slow. In the Atlantic, Invest 93L was located near the Lesser Antilles and had no chance due to wind shear.

Visit our HurricaneCenter for location of all storms and Invests. If you're interested in our exclusive hurricane model maps please click here.

This brings us to Tropical Storm Bertha. A strong wave rolled of Africa Monday night and has now developed into a 45MPH tropical storm. Such storms are referred to as "CV (Cape Verde) waves. Bertha's impressive development this early in the season not only is record breaking, it bears watching. The only July storm that formed near Bertha was Caesar/1990:

Bertha organized further East than did Caesar, making it the easternmost July tropical cyclone on record!

What's next? Bertha's minimum central pressure has dropped only 6-7 millibars in the past 24 hours...so she is not undergoing rapid intensification. But, despite relatively cool water, thunderstorms are refiring and the pressure is dropping. Forecast in the short term is straight forward: generally WNW until the storm reaches 50°W on Monday night. Then, Bertha will decide where she goes! If Bertha becomes a well organized storm or hurricane it is likely she'll recurve and be a "fish" storm. This is because High Pressure to the north will help steer her around the Ridge, where she'll be scooped up by an approaching trof. The other option is Bertha remains a relatively small storm that would not be steered to the Northwest and remain south of the trof...meaning she continues tracking towards the Islands. At some point, wind shear from the migrating Jet Stream should do her in...might be Southeast of Bermuda or further south. Something of interest: the GFDL/GFDI have been good with Bertha thus far and recurve her away from Bermuda as a hurricane next week. There are many options so we're confident on the weekend track, we'll see how things look on Sunday.

UPDATE: 11:20AM. 11AM Forecast/Advisory (#6) has shifted the track "down" more to the southwest of previous packages. NHC keeps the Bertha a tropical storm for the next five days. Should this become a trend, the second option above would become more likely to verify.

Speaking of looking...my daughter sent me this cell phone picture from the family's home in Lexington, Virginia. Each year there's a big hot air balloon rally and fireworks at Virginia Military Institute and the evening breeze always brings balloons right over the neighborhood. By the way, there are three balloons in the picture...did you spot the one landing?

Keep an eye on the sky for more than just fireworks as some storms are forecast over the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and again on Saturday. Some localized thunderstorms could become strong with winds and small hail as the primary threats. Check into our Severe WeatherCenter for information over the weekend.

Next blog on Sunday unless thing change in the tropics. Have a happy and safe Independence Day weekend!

MODERATE Risk for Severe Storms Today!
Monday, June 16

Numerous strong to severe storms expected to develop later this afternoon and tonight as a Cold Front digs southeast and crosses the region today. Behind the front, cooler and drier air will be in control for much of the work week.

SPC has much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast covered by a Slight Risk. MODERATE Risk area is roughly from WV and VA, North of I-64 to Worcester, MA. Current data below (yellow: Slight, Red: Moderate). Click graphic for more information.

This set up doesn't appear to pose much risk for tornadoes, although Supercells may develop. More likely, lines of thunderstorms will form and bow out...creating damaging winds along with very heavy rains. Plenty of cold air aloft with warmer air in the lower levels so hail may also be a factor in some of the thunderstorms.

Strong storms should organize and fire up over WV this afternoon, spreading over VA and the Metro Washington-Baltimore area around rush hour.. This evening, storms traverse NJ, NYC and southern New England. Southern VA is outlined in the Slight Risk area but certainly could see vigorous thunderstorms, lightning, wind and rain late this afternoon. Stay close to our Severe WeatherCenter for current information on this potential severe weather event.

Pattern Change is Welcomed News After An Awesome Week of Weather.
Saturday, June 14

An approaching Cold Front and pre-frontal trof crossing the Mid-Atlantic States tonight is the harbinger of changes in this active and nasty weather pattern. Numerous severe storms lit up regional Radars this afternoon and evening. Here's a SVR as it approached Nelson County, VA (photo submitted by Andy):

A strong Upper Level Low (ULL) over Canada is moving toward the Great Lakes and will bring another Cold Front over the Lakes, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic early next week. Right now, it looks as though this boundary will cross the Mid-Atlantic late Monday or in the early hours of Tuesday. Timing isn't ideal for severe weather, but lines of storms should develop on Monday over the Ohio Valley and approach the Appalachians later in the evening. Heavy rain, wind and some hail could result from the stronger storms that develop...so keep an eye on our Severe WeatherCenter on Sunday and Monday for the latest information. Models hinting the highest risk for severe weather will move east to a line roughly from Syracuse, NY to Winchester, VA...although storms could fire up again over eastern PA and down to the Delmarva.

Behind this next front, we finally catch a break! In fact, after this week's record breaking heat, it will feel downright delightfully chilly. High temps this week soared to the upper 90's with some readings exceeding the century mark...70's will be the rule next week. Wednesday through Friday could see increasing chances for small pop-up storms in the afternoon but overall, a quiet week after Monday's threat passes.

TORNADOES: This has been a terrible week of weather: heat, floods and killer tornadoes. SPC reports indicate 115 tornadoes just this week. While the actual number will be lower, the toll has been numbing even to hardened storm chasers.

Wednesday's twister in Manhattan, Iowa has been evaluated and rated as an EF-4. Interestingly, this tornado was recorded live on a local TV station as it approached the community:

The other highly publicized tornado hit the Little Sioux Scout Ranch Boy Scout camp in Western Iowa, also on Wednesday. Many of you may know I am employed by a local council of the Boy Scouts of America and so the death of four Scouts was particularly distressing to me. All loss of life is tragedy, yet this event was especially painful. The camp was not open this week and Scouts and leaders were there for what is referred to as "pre-camp" week. On Tuesday, they conducted emergency training drills and by all accounts did exactly what was required when the EF-3 approached their camp. These young men and their leaders knew exactly what to do and then took control of the horrific situation until help arrived over 40 minutes later. There's no doubt this would have been worse were it not for heroic efforts by these Scouts and leaders before, during and after the tornado. They are the epitome of what is so very special about being a Scout.

NWS report and photos from the Boy Scout camp here.

Raw AP footage of the Boy Scout camp damage:

A small tornado was tracked at Miami Beach, Florida on Friday! Story and video here.

TROPICS: Not much brewing in the Atlantic, Caribbean and GOM right now. An interesting wave has rolled off Africa but is not expected to develop.

Partly Personal: My son and I took a few days off earlier this week to make the pilgrimage to New York City and Yankee Stadium. This probably will be my final visit to the Stadium as the new ball park opens next season. We attended Monday's game (Yanks lost 3-2 to the Royals. Red Sox fans: contain yourselves!). It was ghastly hot: so hot, the team provided free cups of water. Of course, bottled water still sold for $4.50 apiece! After the game, I sat in the empting box seats and just looked over the ball park I have attended and loved for over 35 years. Very strange how attached we become to inanimate objects.

I missed a strong storm on Tuesday down here in Virginia and thank Michele for sending this photo of tree damage just north of Lexington, VA:

Happy Father's Day to all my fellow Dads!

Arthur Arrives On Hurricane Eve
Sunday, June 1

Invest 90L (remnant of Alma) became Tropical Storm Arthur and I believe this happened as the LLC was mostly over land. Unusual to say the least. High Pressure Ridging generally over the north and eastern Gulf will keep the weakening cyclone out of the Bay of Campeche. It would be interesting to see if this held together to reform over the Pacific. If so, that would make Alma and Arthur in the Pacific and Arthur in the Atlantic...three named storms and hurricane season has just begun!

As today is the "official" start of hurricane season, here's Dr. William (Bill) Gray's April forecast:

Forecast Parameter and
1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses)

7 Dec 2007
Forecast for 2008

9 April
2008

Named Storms (NS) (9.6)

Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1)

Hurricanes (H) (5.9)

Hurricane Days (HD) (24.5)

Intense Hurricanes (IH) (2.3)

Intense Hurricane Days (IHD) (5.0)

Accumulated Cyclone Engery (ACE) (96.1)

Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (100%)

13
60

7

30

3

6

115

125

15
80

8

40

4

9

150

160

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:
1) Entire U.S. coastline - 69% (average for last century is 52%)
2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 45% (average for last century is 31%)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 44% (average forecast last century is 30%)
4) Above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean.

You can read the entire report from Philip Klotzbach and William Gray by clicking HERE.

A Cold Front crossed the region this evening and was the focal point of a pretty good line of storms. As usual, the mountains did their dirty work and I never hear a rumble of thunder, but did enjoy observing the sky bubble up. Here's a picture from north of Roanoke, VA:

click to enlarge.

Upon arriving back home in Lexington, VA, still without a drop of rain, I was treated to a waning rainbow from a nearby thunderstorm:

click to enlarge.

Hurricane Model Maps Now Available...Just In Time For
INVEST 90L...The Atlantic Basin's First System of 2008!

Plus...Historic Tornado Season Continues!
Friday, May 30

INVEST 90L: It's not "officially" hurricane season but we've already had our first named storm (Alma) in the Eastern Pacific and now have Invest 90L in the Atlantic Basin. In actuality, this is a Caribbean/Yucatan storm that has formed from energy of dissipating Alma. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kts with a developing LLC (low level center)...making this close to a Tropical Depression. However, proximity to the Yucatan Peninsula makes immediate development unlikely. We'll continue to monitor as the circulation could survive intact and emerge over the lower Bay of Campeche. I'm not bullish on this but certainly worth watching.

MODEL MAPS NOW AVAILABLE: Our world famous hurricane model maps are now up and running a couple day before the June 1st start of hurricane season. Bigger maps and a lower subscription price make our models affordable for anyone interested in tropical cyclones. And, our popular text messaging service returns in 2008: get new storm alerts delivered right to your cell phone! For model map information or to subscribe, please click HERE.

TORNADOES: There have been an astounding 132 tornado reports from last Sunday through tonight! Last Sunday produced 53 and Thursday's total exceeded 60. 2008 is on pace to break records for the total number of reported tornadoes...with several hitting or approaching major cities such as Atlanta and Norfolk. The severe threat moves east on Saturday...with Delmarva though NJ bearing the brunt of strong storms. Supercells are possible and therefore there is potential for tornadoes in the Mid-Atlantic. Straight-line winds and possibly hail are also threats, particularly late afternoon. Visit our Severe WeatherCenter for real time information.

Partly Personal: You may have noticed blogging has been scarce for the past several weeks. Part of the reason is this has been an amazingly tranquil Spring for most of the East. The main reason, however, has been my dealing with a rather serious family health issue. Time that would have been spent blogging here at Mid-Atlantic WX.com has been devoted to dealing with this ongoing period of uncertainty. We are encouraged by progress over the past several days and I hope for the best...as well as having some time to get back to the blog. As we've seen with Alma and Invest 90L, hurricane season appears eager to quickly get out of the gate. Thank you to those of you who have written to inquire on my decreased writing here at the blog. I hope to have an update on the tropics on Sunday morning.

Current Tornado Outbreak Death Toll: 23 At Least.
Sunday, May 11

I recall several years ago devoting Mother's Day to chasing in a Moderate Risk box over NOVA and MD. I never saw anything close to severe that day however Mother's Day 2008 has been far less kind. No fatalities in today's storm reports, however the past several days have produced a terrible outbreak. I dislike speculating on tornado strength but the video observed from the Picher, OK tornado appears massive and an EF-5 tornado is not ruled out by this author. Tornadoes and related fatalities certainly will well exceed last year's totals and we have half of May and all of June before "spring season" winds down.

As this is typed, I see a confirmed tornado has just touched down in Lewiston, NC, injuring two people.

Here's one of the most amazing tornado video captures I've ever seen! This is a looped clip from a surveillance camera in Leighton, AL actually showing the base of a tornado passing directly in front. Watch what happens to the vehicles. This tornado occurred last Thursday and was rated as an EF-2. The vehicles were not hit directly by this "small" tornado yet you can see they were tossed at least 40 feet! This video should remind everyone to never be in a vehicle as a tornado approaches!!!

A very potent line of storms is crossing the Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon as Low Pressure begins spinning up off the Delmarva Peninsula. An Upper Level Low (ULL) over the Ohio Valley will move East tonight and while the active weather of this afternoon's Tornado Watch area will wane, we could see storms fire up in the dry slot between these two Lows. Cloud cover and loss of what little daytime heating there has been today should keep advancing weather from becoming severe, but thunderstorms with some hail can't be ruled out tonight.

As the Upper Low passes, High Pressure builds in and the tight pressure gradient will produce gusty to strong winds late tonight and into Monday over the region.

Another batch of severe weather should develop Wednesday into Thursday for Texas, tornado alley and possibly the north-central Gulf States as the next Cold Front moves east. This frontal boundary arrives in the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday and should deliver more scattered strong storms to the area. We'll keep precipitation in the forecast into the weekend as a nasty trof of Low Pressure parks over the Eastern US...with several lobes of energy trigger drizzle/rain and some scattered storms. A very active pattern indeed.

MY WEDNESDAY MINI-CHASE:

Last Wednesday night I was in Waynesboro (Augusta), VA when a Tornado Watch was issued. A strong storm headed toward Nelson County and that's where my chasing began. Exiting at Afton Mountain, I was quickly able to observe numerous downed trees. Not far away, a car was on its side, apparently by straight line winds. Another cell was moving into Augusta County, so I headed that way and was able to get on decent picture before the rain began:

The Augusta County storm was severe but I couldn't get under it due to topography. A Tornado Warning was issued shortly after this storm raced Northeast over the Augusta/Rockingham County line. Again, the mountains cut short a promising night for me. The cell dumped nearly one inch hail at Charlottesville and was part of the system that later produced an EF-2 tornado in Stafford County, VA. My chaser buddies out west smirk when told we lose a rotating thunderstorm literally in minutes because of terrain and rural curvy roads. They think nothing of chasing a storm for 100 miles...here in the east, a quarter of that is good.

Several guys I chat with post on an excellent forum at StormTrack.org. If you'd like to read chaser reports and logs of this week's tornado outbreak click here.

Follow-Up on 4/28/08 Virginia Tornado Event..
Tuesday, April 29

Amid yesterday's hectic scene, I failed to mention a tornado in Halifax County, VA (South Boston, VA). NWS Blacksburg has published this report:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
215 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2008

...STORM DAMAGE IN HALIFAX COUNTY VIRGINIA CAUSED BY EF1 TORNADO...

A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURVEY FOUND THAT STORM DAMAGE THAT OCCURRED
IN HALIFAX COUNTY VIRGINIA IN THE TOWN OF VIRGINIA MONDAY AFTERNOON WAS CAUSED
BY AN EF1 TORNADO.

WINDS IN THE STORM WERE ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN 86 AND 109 MPH.
THE STORM WAS ON THE GROUND FROM APPROXIMATELY 110 TO 115 PM. THE INITIAL DAMAGE
STARTED JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE INTERSECTIONS OF HIGHWAYS 96 AND 49.
THIS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE TOWN OF VIRGINIA. THE TORNADO WAS ON THE
GROUND FOR APPROXIMATELY ONE MILE TRAVELING TO THE NORTHEAST. SPORADIC DAMAGE
OCCURRED FURTHER NORTHEAST ON GILLS MOUNTAIN ROAD FROM STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. AT THE
WIDEST POINT...THE TORNADO WAS 240 YARDS WIDE.

6 HOMES WERE DAMAGED...AND NUMEROUS LARGE TREES WERE DOWNED AND SNAPPED.

This tornadic storm was three hours ahead of the more serious weather in and near Suffolk, VA and is logical as the
severe weather traversed from southwest to northeast as the afternoon progressed.

First report on Colonial Heights tornado:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
405 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2008

... THE FOLLOWING IS A BRIEF SUMMARY OF TORNADO SURVEY RESULTS FOR
THE COLONIAL HEIGHTS, VA TORNADO ON APRIL 28, 2008...

SURVEY DAMAGE SCALE RESULT: EF1
ESTIMATED WINDSPEED: 86-110 MPH
TOTAL INJURIES: 21
TOTAL DEATHS: 0
PATH LENGTH: APPROX. 1/2 MILE
PATH WIDTH: APPROX. 75-80 YARDS

SUMMARY...

IN COLONIAL HEIGHTS...THE TORNADO APPEARED TO MOVE ALONG AN APPROXIMATELY ONE-HALF MILE,
75-80 YARD WIDTH PATH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. AS INDICATED FROM THE DAMAGE,
THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN SPOTS BEGINNING NEAR THE END OF THE FOOTBALL FIELD
NEAR COLONIAL HEIGHTS MIDDLE SCHOOL, ACROSS INTERSTATE 95, INTO THE DIMMOCK SQUARE
SHOPPING CENTER. THE FIRST OF THE DAMAGE WAS TO A FOOTBALL FIELD CLUBHOUSE AS A PART OF
THE ROOF WAS BLOWN OFF. THE STORM THEN LIFTED ACROSS AN AREA OF HOMES AND TOUCHED DOWN
AGAIN JUST WEST OF THE INTERSTATE AND TEARING A PATH THROUGH THE ROOF OF THE MEDALLION
POOLS BUILDING. TWISTED METAL WAS STREWN ACROSS THE PARKING LOT WITH A FEW CARS DAMAGED
FROM THE FLYING DEBRIS. THE TORNADO LIFTED AGAIN ACROSS I-95 SCATTERING DEBRIS ACROSS
THE SOUTHGATE SQUARE PARKING LOT INCLUDING A HALF-TON AIR CONDITIONING UNIT BLOWN
APPROXIMATELY 300 YARDS AND DEPOSITED IN FRONT OF THE HELZBERG DIAMONDS BUSINESS
NEAR SOUTH PARK BOULEVARD.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE OCCURRED WITH THE FINAL TOUCHDOWN IN THE DIMMOCK SQUARE
STRIP MALL. A STRING OF 4 STORES AROUND 75-80 YARDS IN WIDTH HAD CEILING TILES BLOWN OUT,
ROOF PEELED OFF AND WINDOWS BLOWN OUT. SEVERAL CARS WERE DAMAGED...AS SOME HAD WINDOWS
SHATTERED FROM FLYING DEBRIS. OTHER VEHICLES WERE FLIPPED AND TOSSED ABOUT IN
PILES. THE STORM APPEARED TO LIFT AGAIN BUT THERE WAS DAMAGE TO A BANK AND LIGHT POLES
BLOWN DOWN IN A CAR LOT APPROXIMATELY 50 TO 100 YARDS EAST OF DIMMOCK SQUARE.
CARS WERE ALSO DAMAGED HERE FROM THE FLYING DEBRIS.

Total number of yesterday's Virginia tornadoes is now at six.


I'm sharing the video below because it gives you a good sense of what chasing is like here in the East. We have far more 
obstructions than do our friends in Tornado Alley...as evidenced by the tornado  "popping out" from behind trees. I chuckled 
at hearing a horns blow as the Jesse V. Bass III (chaser/videographer) pulled out into traffic. Been there, done that!

Helicopter video and analysis from last evening over the Suffolk/Driver area.

Interesting to watch the video above and see how this tornado lifted and came down again. There are unconfirmed reports this occurred several times along a path that may reach 25 miles in length. The NWS is assessing an expansive damage path and will ultimately be able to determine the exact path, intensity and number of touchdowns for each tornado. Path of largest tornado:

View Larger Map

Loads more videos here: http://www.hamptonroads.tv/index.cfm?locvid=139644&tid=r700

Last night, I was reminded of a twister oddity I totally forgot. The violent La Plata, MD tornado also happened on April 28 (2002). I should have recalled the date as I remember chasing in the Shenandoah Valley and NOVA and that was the date a white tornado crossed I-81 here in the Valley. Pictures in our photo gallery (click to enlarge):

.

Video of the 4/28/02 event:

Yesterday's tornadoes had the potential of causing a large number of deaths. While the "Suffolk tornado" was larger than what most people anticipated, there was a Tornado Watch box that was followed by Tornado Warnings. SPC, NWS and local media in the area provided *excellent* service to the public and deserve recognition for mitigating loss of life. I'm a member of SkyWARN and was unable to chase but have exchanged text messages with a cohort in Hampton Rhodes, VA. Trained spotters and chasers in these parts don't often cover a violent twister, but those who did yesterday did so professionally and provided critical ground truth. We should tip our caps to the professionals and volunteers who helped prevent catastrophic casualties here in Virginia.

Suffolk, VA Tornadoes Reportedly Injure over 200 People & Produced Significant Damage.
Monday, April 28

Tornadoes in Brunswick County and the City of Suffolk, VA late this afternoon have produced significant to major damage. As this is written (7:15PM), a Tornado Watch remains in effect for extreme SE VA and NE NC.

The tornadoes developed around 3:30PM this afternoon and were associated with storms ahead of a Cold Front crossing the interior Mid-Atlantic States. There are reports of two tornadoes crossing Suffolk, VA and I've seen one picture of a multiple vort tornado so we'll see how the damage path looks to NOAA personnel who now are investigating.

It is nearly impossible to determine the strength of a tornado without examining the damage, but I can tell you the event in Suffolk produced very significant damage as evidenced by this photo from WAVY.com:

When all is said and done I'm certain this will be an EF-3 tornado...at least.

Today's storm report map (click graphic for more data)

Thus far, three tornado touchdowns appear to have occurred in SE VA...not unheard of but somewhat unusual except during landfalling hurricanes or tropical storms. What is unusual is the probable intensity; most twisters in the Mid-Atlantic range from EF-0 to EF-2. An EF-3 is significant while an EF-4 would be rare.

Good local coverage (including raw videos) out of Norfolk, VA on WAVY.com. My daughter attends college in the area and I spoke with her this evening; she reported rain but nothing severe at her campus so her Dad is grateful for that news.

Widespread severe weather is not expected for the region tonight although snow may accumulate over the western slopes of the Alleghanies early Tuesday morning. A few flakes could fly over the Virginia Highlands but no accumulation is expected. Temps rebound into the 60's and lower 70's later this week for the region.

Quick Clipper Exits Before Easter Cool Down and Struggling Spring...And...
More Amazing Pics!
Friday, March 21

An Alberta Clipper now crossing the Lakes, where a band of 4-6 inches of snow will accumulate, will cross the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow with little fanfare. We'll keep all frozen precip from the Clipper north of the Mason-Dixon Line while saying some back side snow flurries may fall late Saturday over the Alleghanies. Otherwise, modest amounts of snow for PA with a narrow rain/snow mix nearer the NJ coast.

High Pressure will build in over the Mid-Atlantic States behind the departing Clipper. This I find irritating given the sparkling weather we've enjoyed today. Easter Sunday morning should be quite cool to downright cold. Highs on Sunday and Monday will be in the 40's to low 50s as the High overspreads the region with chilly air. Night time Lows return to the 20's and lower 30's from west to east.

The costal Low some models were advertising will develop...but will do so well off-shore and quickly head out and away from land. Therefore, this system will not produce The Mother of All Easter Snowstorms for the Northeastern US. A shortwave will move into the region and a little wintery precipitation can be expected late Sunday night and Monday morning as precipitation will fall in chilly air. Right now it looks like light snow will more into the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday night for locations north of VA I-64 (Staunton-Charlottesville-Richmond) and down the I-81 Corridor. Onset may be delayed due to dry air in place with early precipitation evaporating before reaching the ground (virga). There could be a coating of wet snow and perhaps pockets of freezing rain but no significant accumulation is expected and all areas will warm to above freezing by late Monday morning. This is one of those nuisance variety winter irritations! South of VA I-64 and along the coast this will be a wet and not white event...possible exception is Charlottesville-Lynchburg-Farmville areas could see a touch of freezing drizzle with some wet snow flakes.

Temps rebound midweek as rain approaches late Thursday with another frontal boundary.

COOL PIX:

This is an absolutely stunning picture believed to show the March 14 tornado entering the City of Atlanta:

Click Picture to Enlarge

When I first saw this picture it was without credits and honestly thought it to be an urban legend Photoshop hoax. The photographer provided the picture to "11 Alive" in Atlanta and has been featured on the web site of Atlanta basted Talk Radio host Neal Boortz. The ominous dark clouds in the foreground appear to be a Shelf Cloud while lightning illuminates the rain shaft in the center of the image. Look above the bright building on the left side of the picture: it is believed that shaft is the tornado approaching downtown. Wow! Thanks to Troy over near Charlottesville, VA for sending in to Mid-Atlantic WX.com

This storm system produced an area of Low Pressure off the Southeast coast that raced away and quickly intensified last weekend. Here's what the storm looked like from space last Sunday:

Click Picture to Enlarge.

You may think that's a hurricane but in reality it is a very intense non-tropical Low Southeast of the Canadian Maritimes.

I'll get these amazing images into our Photo Gallery this weekend.

March weather always is exciting! Have a happy and safe Easter Weekend.

Severe Storms Possible Today. And...How About an Easter Snowstorm?!?!
Wednesday, March 19

Sunday's blog below has verified nicely so far so this will be a quick advisory with no big changes to original ideas.

Double barrel Low Pressure over TN/KY this morning tracks into eastern Ohio Valley this afternoon and then the Northeast early Thursday. High Pressure over the SW Atlantic will weaken and shift, allowing moderate to heavy rain to finally overspread the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States. Warm and juicy air from the Southwest is being squeezed up between the Cold Front and the SE Ridge with morning temps well up into the 50's and 60's across the region.

Severe weather parameters are not supportive of a widespread outbreak of dangerous weather today...however...moderate to heavy rain and some thunderstorms are likely. The extent of severe weather probably lies in a very narrow band of storms expected to fire just ahead of the Cold Front late this afternoon and early evening. Best bet right now is for broken lines of storms later today over eastern KY/TN and WV, moving over west-central NC and VA. There's a slight threat of an isolated tornado however heavy rains and damaging winds should be the biggest risk factors later today. Check our convective outlooks from SPC by clicking HERE.

Check in with our Severe WeatherCenter for real-time information during the day.

EASTER SNOWSTORM?: As opined in last Sunday's blog, there's a possibility for "interesting" weather on Sunday. Models still dueling but the trend is toward a *significant* snow event for the Northeast...possibly the Mid-Atlantic States. I'll have a full discussion on Friday but be sure to check forecasts and information here at Mid-Atlantic WX.com if you have travel plans for Easter weekend!

Midweek Mid-Atlantic Storms? And A Look Ahead to Easter Weekend.
Plus...Tornado Follow-Up and Why I'm a Proud Yankees Fan!
Sunday, March 16

Low Pressure that triggered this weekend's significant severe outbreak is heading northeast well off the VA/NC coast. High Pressure centered above the Great Lakes will build down into the Mid-Atlantic and Eastern US today, brining calmer, breezy weather and cooler temperatures. Clearing skies and Canadian High Pressure will drop overnight temps below freezing for the entire region north of the VA-NC border.

A buckle in the northern Jet Stream now over Southern California will kick a storm from the Southwest and increase the risk of severe weather tomorrow for south-central TX. This dip in the Jet Stream will produce a negatively-tilted trof over the Central US and while models are not in total agreement, strong storms may fire up over Louisiana on Tuesday. Low Pressure associated with this system will migrate toward the Great Lakes on Tuesday...pushing a Warm Front into the Mid-Atlantic area, quickly followed by a Cold Front as the system passes by. Rain will overspread the TN and OH Valleys before reaching the Mid-Atlantic States on Wednesday. There is a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms developing ahead of the Cold Front on Wednesday afternoon...particularly over the Carolinas and Georgia (areas hit by this weekend's severe outbreak). I'll monitor and update the blog as necessary, but keep an eye on Wednesday's forecast.

The departing storm opens the door for High Pressure to return and with it, a drop in temps to near of slightly below normal levels on Thursday and Friday.

Curious potential next weekend. An Alberta Clipper will come down but should be moisture starved. Interestingly, most Clippers this winter have tracked South of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic and this one should, too. Easter Weekend weather still "iffy" for Central US, especially if the usually reliable European (ECMWF) model is right and we have deep Low Pressure on Easter Sunday over the Central Plains!

After a "couple days off", the active and stormy cycle of storms that is typical for March should resume this week and extend into the final week of the month.

Atlanta Tornado Follow-Up:

I received this picture last evening:

This photo shows exterior damage from a building in downtown Atlanta. I was asked to identify the three metal objects "stuck" on the side of the building and offer speculation as to what punched a hole in the exterior wall and knocked out the window. I have no idea! The structure appears to be of concrete masonry construction... whatever hit the building did so with great force. I've not seen this photo elsewhere and did forward to the National Weather Service. This image shows you what a "minor" EF-2 is capable of doing. Odd for a storm chaser to say but this is more proof of why you never want to be outside or near a window as when a tornado approaches. Thanks go to Annie in Kershaw, SC for sending in this stunning photo.

Let's Go Yankees! If you've read this blog for any length of time you know I am a lifelong New York Yankees fan. Tuesday (3/18), the Bronx Bombers play a benefit exhibition game with the Virginia Tech Hokies baseball team. Tickets were not available to the public and all proceeds benefit the Hokie Spirit Memorial Fund. The Yankees have already made a one-million-dollar gift to this fund and this game will generate additional financial support for this endowment. Perhaps as important, the Yankees bring Megastar excitement to a campus still recovering from the events of April 16, 2007.

Try as I did, no tickets for me so I'll watch the game on local TV. Here's a link for broadcast outlets over the air and on the Internet: http://www.hokiesports.com/baseball/recaps/20080306aaa.html. I know a HUGE percentage of my friends and those who read the blog absolutely detest the Yankees and that just the way we fans like it!!! I do hope even the Yankee haters will appreciate what the team has done to support VT and how exciting it is for the local area and Hokie Nation.

This game reminds us we'll soon be hearing: "Play Ball"!

Severe Storm Hits Downtown Atlanta On Friday Night...Tornado or Macroburst?
MODERATE Risk of Severe Storms in GA-SC Today.
Saturday, March 15

UPDATED: 11:55AM: The National Weather Service has confirmed last night's storm affecting the Metro Atlanta area was an "EF-2" tornado. Preliminary assessment indicates tornado damage along a 6 mile path, 200 yards wide. This is the first tornado to affect the City of Atlanta.

Additional severe weather possible today...more in this morning's original blog below.

MODERATE RISK TODAY: Much of Georgia and South Carolina are under a Moderate Risk for severe weather today. Folks in the affected area should monitor reliable local media and have a NOAA Weather Alert Radio handy. Visit our Severe WeatherCenter for real-time information. Slight Risk of strong storms spreads north into North Carolina later this afternoon and evening.

The severe storm that moved literally over downtown Atlanta last night has produced extensive damage and as of this morning, 20 injuries but no known fatalities.

I've been watching "11 Alive" from Atlanta as they continue nearly wall-to-wall coverage: here's the link for live streaming video: http://www.11alive.com/video/default_live.aspx?storyid=112936

I was in Atlanta late January and recognize many of the familiar damaged landmarks downtown now showing damage on TV. Amazing to see damage at the Georgia Dome, windows blown out of the CNN center and furniture sucked out of rooms at the downtown Omni Hotel.

Looking at last night's Radar, it's clear a severe thunderstorm moved into the Atlanta Metro but until the NWS officially inspects the path and damage one can not "officially" say this was a tornado. I'll tell you a hook echo forming on Radar loop certainly supports the belief a tornado was developing as the storm approached downtown. My hunch, based on ground and aerial video this morning is the NWS will find either "EF-2" tornado damage or classify this as a non-tornadic Macroburst. A Macroburst is a powerful downburst of damaging winds over an area greater than 2.5 miles (a Microburst has a diameter of less than 2.5 miles).

Fascinating audio and video is found in the video below, taken during the Alabama-Mississippi State SEC basketball game at the Georgia Dome. You can hear the oft-mentioned "freight train" sound of wind people used to describe a tornado. However, this is similar to what occurs during a macro or microburst and is not audio evidence of an approaching tornado. In a macroburst, a large column of air accelerates downward and upon reaching the ground it spreads out in all directions. This type of outflow "roars", especially as it passes through trees and developed areas. But, Rada leads me to believe this will be an EF-2 tornado. Click the video below and imagine you were in the Georgia Dome as this was occurring:

A final comment on what the NWS is looking for. Macroburst damage is caused by straight line winds radiating out from the center of the downburst. Tornadoes, in contrast, tend to produce damage that rotates inward toward the exact patch of converging winds.

I've been in several microbursts and one macroburst and, yes, they do produce very strong winds...often over 100MPH! So, we'll wait and see what NWS finds over the next day or so.

RANTS: Atlanta Mayor Shirley Franklin said in a press conference late last night there was "...no warning".
That is not correct:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA  
930 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2008  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  CENTRAL FULTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA  
  
* UNTIL 1000 PM EDT

The NWS Forecast Office indeed did issue a "short-fuse" warning and while the Mayor may not have known, the NWS
did their job and was disserved by her inaccurate comment. She needs to reassure Atlantans by publicly apologizing 
to the National Weather Service. If you viewed the video above you heard no mention of a Tornado Warning until the 
storm had passed downtown! While announcing "Tornado Warning" in a packed public arena is frightening, the
alternative is far worse. The Weather Channel is a joke. Fox News and CNN had more extensive coverage than did TWC.
It seems they now pre-record much of their on-air content and have no one available to cover a severe weather 
event that is affecting tens of thousands of people, literally down the street. I gave up on TWC years ago and so 
should you. Pathetic.

I'll be back tomorrow with a look ahead to next week's weather.

Quiet Week Before a Saint Paddy's Storm...And...
My Mini-Chase and Major Rant.
Sunday, March 9

[Truth in advertising: this was written late Sunday but published after Midnight so I kept the dateline as March 9, 2008]

A ripple of Low Pressure rolls through the Mid-Atlantic States tonight and Monday and may bring some mixed precip or a little light snow to PA up to southern New England. A very weak Cold Front approaches Monday night with the chance for light sprinkles or a wayward snow flurry over the Appalachians...otherwise a quiet start to the work week. High Pressure builds back in on Tuesday and temps climb to above normal reading with clear skies and rather "boring" weather.

Another system approaches late Thursday, but should bring only rain to the region as temps will remain quite mild.

A potent storm will crash into the Pacific Northwest later this week and could impact the Mid-Atlantic region just in time for St. Patrick's Day. I'll not the NAO Ensemble is forecast to go negative for the first time since mid-December...this teleconnects with the strength and timing of the Pac NW system. Models are generally pointing to Low Pressure diving down toward Texas late week and then moving off the Mid-Atlantic Coast before heading toward the Northeast this weekend. Right now it looks like rain with the possibility of scattered minor thunderstorms on Saturday. Sunday certainly looks like the better day next weekend with clearing skies and temps generally in the upper 50's to lower 60's. Interior Northeast could see mixed or winter precipitation but that is not certain at this time.

As this is a weekend event, I'll update the blog on Thursday night and invite you to stop by at that time.

MINOR RANT ABOUT OVER-HYPING SEVERE WEATHER: Last Tuesday night I was able to get out and try to chase. Travel was modest due to weakening storms within quick driving distance from my office in Lexington, VA (not the tornado capital of the region!). I did intercept a storm near Bedford, VA that prompted a radar-indicated Tornado Warning, but found no funnel despite some rotation. Afterwards, while waiting for another chaser, I checked VCAST Video on my Verizon cell phone. Wow! I had no idea what I've been missing! Apparently, Verizon has a deal with WeatherBug to stream recorded daily weather briefs. Last Tuesday's video indicated the Southeastern and Mid-Atlantic US were in store for "...EF-2s, EF-3s, EF-4...possibly even EF-5's". Really??? Meanwhile, the video went on to say the storm's cold sector would produce "a half inch to one inch of ice" for the Ohio Valley" Holy Cow...I'm in-between EF-5s and freezing rain accretion of one inch. What a storm!

Well, there were no EF-3s,4s or 5s, nor were any ever forecast (there was one minor TOR in Alabama, I believe). And that one solid inch of ice? Nope, never forecast and did not happen (do you know how devastating one inch of ice would be?). I don't mean to pick one anyone, however, this was the single biggest example I've ever seen of over-hyping severe weather. Last Tuesday's event was significant and produced a wide swath of severe weather...especially in early March. But, "forecasting" massive intense tornadoes in areas where they rarely occur is not prudent and unnecessarily alarms people. Thankfully, major tornadoes in the East are extremely rare: multiple F-4s occurred across the Carolinas in 1989 and the most recent F/EF-4 was near La Plada, MD during the Mid-Atlantic Outbreak in April, 2002. One must go back to 1985 for the most recent Eastern US F/EF-5 tornado which caused immense destruction near Wheatland, PA.

Only 20% into 2008, 66 tornado fatalities have been recorded, already making this a very bad year. Those entrusted to forecast and discuss weather have a duty and responsibility to impress upon the public the threats of a severe event without exaggeration and hype.

Mid-Atlantic Moderate Risk for Severe Weather Today! First Tornado Watch in Effect.
Tuesday, March 4

Real-time current Tornado Watch(es) seen below in dark red. Click graphic for enlarged view).

Severe threat expands today as a strong upper level storm (ULL) and Frontal Boundary approach the area today. Slight Risk area highlighted in yellow below. The MODERATE RISK zone outlined in red. Click graphic below for more maps showing wind, hail and tornado threats.

A potent squall line should develop this afternoon...particularly strong over the Carolinas and perhaps up into the Piedmont of VA (south of Charlottesville). Areas with some sun will see enhanced severe parameters and Supercells can not be ruled out, thus the concern over tornadoes. While tornadoes are possible along bow lines, these "bow Echoes" typically produce weak and relatively short lived twisters. Different story with Supercells and this is what will be closely monitored today.

I'm also watching where the rain and clouds are located ahead of the frontal boundary. The western Carolinas and VA have been socked in all morning and these clouds and rain may well put the kibosh on severe weather this afternoon. This lines up nicely with how SPC is forecasting this afternoon's Slight and MODERATE risk areas. In general terms, this should be a heavy rain event west of the Blue Ridge (I-81 Corridor) and north of VA I-64 from Staunton-Charlottesville-Richmond, VA. South of this area...especially if there's some afternoon heating and a squall line develops...very strong storms are possible with hail and damaging winds. Again, highest tornado threat is for the Carolinas, west of I-95 as well as extreme south central VA.

Timeline for severe weather is 4PM-10PM as the front will clear the region by Wednesday morning.

Spring is a good time to review your personal preparedness for tornadoes: get tips by clicking HERE
As always, our Severe WeatherCenter provides you with real-time information.

I have the "chase gear" ready but doubt I'll be able to get very far out of the I-81 Corridor today...so please check back this evening for an update on the season's first Mid-Atlantic severe weather threat.

UPDATE, 6:55PM: Excellent discussion from the Storm Prediction Center nicely sums up risk for tonight:

DISCUSSION...VERY INTENSE VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS AND LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL OVERSPREAD THIS REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS STRONG UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MEAGER...MOISTENING LOW LEVELS CONCURRENT WITH 70+ KT SLY LLJ WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL ROTATION AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR IN TWO BANDS...ONE NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL NC/VA AND ANOTHER SPREADING ENEWD ALONG THE MAIN COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT. SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT UNTIL THE LATER BAND MOVES OFFSHORE.

(Emphasis added by me). This second line of storms referenced by SPC is holding together but could weaken somewhat later tonight. However...this pre-frontal squall line is inside a dry slot ahead of the Front...between the offshore High and the Upper Level Low currently over Kentucky. For this reason, extreme caution is urged tonight in the expansive Tornado Watch area. Flood Warnings also popping up over WV as heavy rain continues over snow pack and could produce dangerous night time flash flooding!

If I don't head out to meet up with chasers, I'll be online this evening...check my AIM IM box on the left. If I'm online, please let me know about your weather.

First Severe Threat For Mid-Atlantic Arrives Tuesday...Followed by a Nor'Easter!
Monday, March 3

Temperature roller coaster continues this week...but we're definitely on the upswing. Strong winds racing up from the southwest today will bring temps to well above normal levels ahead of an approaching Cold Front. Warm moist air from the Gulf collides with cooler and dryer air behind the front will produce severe weather along the north-central Gulf coast, FL Panhandle and into GA today.

Low Pressure will track across the Tennessee and Ohio Valley on Tuesday, moving toward PA on Tuesday night. Intense storms should continue overnight and into Tuesday morning over the FL Panhandle and into AL and GA...torrential rain and some tornadoes are probable.

Mid-Atlantic States currently in Slight Risk zone from Storm Prediction Center and my hunch is this will be tweaked on Tuesday to include an upgrade to MODERATE RISK...probably for portions NE GA, much of SC and coastal NC...and perhaps SE VA up to Norfolk/VAB Check our Severe WeatherCenter for real-time information. Strongest storms move from the SEUS into the Carolinas late Tuesday morning and into the afternoon. Severe parameters indicate the greatest threat is from damaging winds...however...tornadoes are possible! As the frontal boundary approaches a squall line is expected to develop, producing some thunderstorms and very heavy rain. In the areas outlined above, there should be sufficient sunshine and daytime heating to enhance the potential for Supercell development...heightening the threat of tornadoes on Tuesday afternoon. l This system will have the potential to continue producing damaging weather as it has today and persons in the potentially affected areas should monitor reliable local media and keep an eye on our Severe WeatherCenter.

North and west of the strongest storms will see rain with rumbles of thunder Tuesday afternoon and evening and damaging wind gusts will be possible. Rainfall of one to two inches is also possible in areas will frozen ground and snow cover; as a result, numerous Flood Watches have been posted.

Behind this severe threat looms a reminder it is early March. Low Pressure will shoot out of the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and intensify as it reaches Savannah, GA on Friday. Current setup supports a growing computer model consensus this becomes a Nor'Easter this weekend! First guess right now is rain for the SEUS and along the coast up to NYC. a swath of mixed/freezing precipitation should develop late Thursday or Friday from Philly down to the Metro Washington DC area and along the Appalachians. West and north of the wintry mix will be snow...possibly heavy snow! The track of this pending Nor'easter is uncertain but it does appear the Mid-Atlantic will see mostly rain with mixed precip for the mountains and perhaps the I-81 Corridor. We'll need to tune up this discussion with a discussion here Wednesday night or early Thursday.

Keep an eye out for severe weather tomorrow...especially if you are located or traveling in the eastern/coastal Carolinas or southeastern VA.

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